Paul Shaughnessyand Fight Network’sCody Safticmake their UFC Louisville Picks. The card goes down Saturday June 8th in Louisville, Kentucky. The guys make their UFC picks, give their favorite bets and props for each fight.
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
14:51 Nassourdine Imavov vs Jared Cannonier
21:39 Dustin Jacoby vs Dominick Reyes
28:25 Raul Rosas Jr. vs Ricky Turcios
37:15 Brunno Ferreira vs Dustin Stoltzfus
43:59 Julian Marquez vs Zach Reese
53:26 Miguel Baeza vs Punahele Soriano
1:02:38 Ludovit Klein vs Thiago Moises
1:10:32 Carlos Prates vs Charles Radtke
1:18:08 Brad Katona vs Jesse Butler
1:27:25 Andrea Lee vs Montana De La Rosa
1:33:55 Daniel Marcos vs John Castaneda
1:38:47 Eduarda Moura vs Denise Gomes
1:44:29Taylor Lapilus vs Cody Stamman
1:52:15 Rayanne Amanda vs Puja Tomar
2:10:21 PRP
Paul Shaughnessy Twitter:https://twitter.com/PaulShag
Cody Saftic Twitter:https://twitter.com/CjSaftic
[Music] [Applause] [Music] welcome to another edition of the doger pass podcast this for UFC Louisville producer Megan on the sticks Cody saftic on the line I lost a shoy bet on Saturday turns out yeah I got to I got to start maybe like being a little bit more select of not just falling for the peer pressure turns out Caesar Almeida you know kickboxer can’t wrestle if he could just ah there’s there was a few opportunities for him to get get himself back into that fight and as we know judging was kind of squirly top and bottom around that card that this past weekend so um you know we get kind of used to being in Vegas we’ve been in Vegas all these Apex cards and stuff you have the same crew same people who do lots and lots of fights all the time I was saying before Cody got on to get got or before we started recording this show that like I think I’m going to start like sneakily betting some like sub uh Split Decision props on fights that I think are going to the to decision because no one seems to know anymore like how much control time versus like Landing a few strikes sways a judge’s scorecard scoring seems more up in the air than ever before maybe it’s just me no no not at all man and I’m thinking I’m got a similar approach like on one hand if it’s not broke don’t fix it and we’ve been running in this hot streak the last you know three UFC events now on the other hand I’m about to hit a brick wall pretty soon and this is a brick wall card there’s a lot of 50-50 fights there’s a 40-year-old fight headlining the card who’s been off for two years bunch of guys have been off two years there’s two fight losing streaks three fight losing streaks four fight losing streaks two separate fighters on four fight losing streaks and they’re actually not bad if you were going to look for underdogs potentially so yeah I don’t know man this is like a super greasy card top to bottom uh in terms of last week’s card the judging was so bad I think I think it’s not just one every card’s got one bad fight one outlier one that you could really look to and say that was a terrible decision this card had four you know the right guy won more often than not but still it just makes you really worried and so going into this week it because it’s such a greasy card it’s like who are my anchors and who are some of the guys that you can trust but here in Lin’s the issue those anchors being guys like Brad Katona six fights in the UFC all six of them have gone to decision you know I don’t mind a play like uh Taylor Lolas Taylor laas is a decision guy so now even though they’re favorites if you know that you’re a fighter they could be super talented they could win rounds if you know they’re going to go to decision in their chalky price tags it seems like it’s worse than ever before and yeah we’re in Kentucky people make jokes like the Kentucky commission it’s mostly the same losers that judge all of these cards they go to Kentucky they go to Denver they go to Chicago they go to all these different places and it’s always they go overseas and it’s like oh maybe the English commission or the French commission is better and it’s these same guys so I don’t know I don’t know it’s a super broken problem with uh with the sport right now I think it definitely like deserves a conversation and maybe like something that you could try fix but how do you fix it I got ideas but it’s not like anybody will take them seriously so all we can try to do dude is avoid the pie [ __ ] and the fights that’ll be close decisions and the getting robbed in these situations but the whole term never leave it in the hands of Judges like that’s so much easier said than done like they’re all tough Fighters tough athletes put in 8 12 week training camps yeah you know you have to finish them like these fights are going to go to decision and I just got to trust that these idiots judging it are going to get it right normally I’m not on people like this guy’s an idiot this guy’s blah blah blah but like it’s so incompetent and I see the argument where it’s like well they’re in the arena and they’re watching it from a different vantage point because they can only see the one angle and they can they don’t see okay well you know what box them in a room at the venue a soundproof room with the TV on with no commentary and just watch the fight that’s it that’s it and submit submit your cards the digital age so the round ends beep boop boop and sits to a computer and then at the end of the fight that computer tells you this guy won you don’t have to sit there and try to read it oh it’s it’s it’s N9 109 man what the hell what what takes 10 minutes to read it’s so incompetent just box them up in a room no commentary they can watch the broadcast like everybody at home that’s the best way to watch a fight everybody knows it there’s no there’s no Arena noise that’s going to get to you and just do your goddamn job but I can’t be mad because we won all the fights they were dirty splits but we were on the right side of them so yeah whatever dude it is what it is yeah that was the thing about it is that they were split decisions but at the end of the day the person that won didn’t get robbed right like it was yeah they it was all the right guys but there was you know 33% of the judges in those fights were like off on another planet as far as I was concerned like I thought I thought there could have been an argument for Almeida if with like 37 seconds left he got back up to his feet and landed some strikes but then yeah I was like how did you give him round like you couldn’t you couldn’t give him round three you gave him round two but it’s like you couldn’t give him round three um in the way that fight played out like I thought that was completely wild um I wasn’t paying too too close of attention to the uh to the proposal fight but that fight seemed relatively competitive and close in fairness and then I mean Costa was backing up for five rounds it’s tough to win just when when you’re when you’re when you’re backpedaling in MMA and boxing totally different story and maybe that’s where the issue comes from it’s like that Dave trelli like I don’t I don’t really know him all that well that was the guy who scored a for Costa is he more of like a boxing judge is that is that what happened in that situation no he’s been he’s been around the sport for a long time but so a buddy of mine sent me a thread and they’re like is this the guy that just like botched those two calls on the show and it’s a Reddit Thread about specifically Dave trelli and it’s from like 2019 right so it’s like four or five years old and this guy does a way better job than I could explain it right now but he breaks down like a set of 20 fights where Dave trelli is the outlier card on these split decisions and they’re egregious decisions that it’s like what could you Poss and he’s the guy every single time he’s a traditional martial artist got a black belt in what I don’t know like I don’t think it’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu but it could be some type of like again just a traditional martial art so a guy that’s been around the fight game a long time you know they they they have judged hundreds if not thousands of fights and yet he’s the outlier so so in any other person’s job when people are filing complaints or you’re doing a poor uh job there’s like some type of review there’s like some responsibility you have to own up to it and like answer to somebody but there’s no accountability in refereeing certain not refereeing which there’s also no accountability but judging especially so they don’t go on Twitter afterwards and defend themselves they don’t do an interview post fight to say this is why I scored it for this guy so that the public and maybe even the fighters in their teams could know what to maybe improve next time around but Strickland’s got a style just like George mosal before mosal was flying knes but you remember mosal used to get robbed on split decisions all the time all the time he got robbed on split decisions why because like he’s got some bit of a flow style where there’s not like no real sense of urgency and kind of leaves it open for debate and so he would go and talk to the judges and be like why did you score this for my opponent just so I can go back to you know gym and improve on certain aspects change my game and you know what he figured out Paul I got to run across the ring and with a flying knee in the first four seconds and dice this guy because you just can’t go to decision because these guys are again highly incompetent and if it was a they’re in Vegas Vegas isn’t so bad and then they go to a smaller Market oh Tennessee Okay Tennessee is pretty good okay you go to Michigan oh Michigan’s bad then at least you could prep for it but because it’s the same guys that they’re just catering around to the same events SS at all these shows he’s judging all the time and it’s like you can’t escape it man the bad judging just follows you it’s not like it’s a NASCAR race where you could be like that’s a bad track I’m gonna avoid this one it’s like it just follows you man so yeah we haven’t even talked about a single fight I seen a comment last week in the YouTube comment it was like stop talking so much and just get to the pick that’s not what we’re here for we’re here have some fun talk some fights and on a 14 Fight Card Paul yeah yeah it’s gonna it’s going to be tough we’re we’re going to need some bounces but I think I’m prepped for it yeah 2019 was not a good year for Dave terrelli if you go on like MMA decisions and then search by judge you can go through all the years and then the ones that are in yellow will show the ones where he was the opposite side of the split there’s like a Darren till versus Kelvin Gastelum where like the entire media had like 30 27 till and he had 3027 Gastelum so 3027 the other way yeah dude there was a bunch of them it very well expained but like in the grand scheme of things when you look at it like from a big picture perspective there plenty of fights some fights are just so obvious I suppose that like anybody could score them correctly but you know it’s not like he’s mess messing up every single fight he goes on long stretches without messing them up I don’t know here here’s the thing any judge sport whether it’s figure skating or what or uh gymnastics it’s like anytime you have humans judging something you’re open for Human air and that’s just the way it is so you know how I looked at it I’ve always looked at it the same way what are the first fights that you’ve ever gone to that anybody’s ever gone to is fights at the school fight behind the the bik rack after recess and and you would get together and these two kids would scrap it out and it would go on for a minute 45 seconds maybe two minutes but the fight ended and then everybody left and it was like Johnny won and it wasn’t like six people were like John Johnny won Johnny won Johnny and one guy’s like no man Kevin beat his ass no no it was just like you’re in agree you watched a fight you know who won and when I’m cagide watching a fight I’ll admit it’s a little tougher than it is at home uh simply because you are just looking at one angle so there’s you see a lot more headbutts at live you don’t necessarily see like certain nuances or you get caught in a Vibe of the arena and sometimes the Arena’s quiet and you hear certain shots more but hearing doesn’t NE necessarily necessitate a better shot it’s just could be a slap and kick off the arm and the crowd will woo and a so like I’m not faulting them it’s a tough job how many times have you seen the fight where you’re generally like I think this guy won but I wouldn’t be disappointed or I wouldn’t be you’d be disappointed because you probably lost money on it but you wouldn’t be upset you’d probably be upset because the internet just cries robberry all the time a normal thinking person sees a close fight and can see okay I could see how it could go either way the the copala fight he had a ton of control time but he was doing nothing in fact I’ve never seen somebody Herb Dean clap so much in my life he’d be like you need to do more you need to do more I know you need to do more I was I was praying to her being like stand it up so I don’t to do this shoy the whole crowd the whole Arena 177,000 people are all chanting stand them up stand them up and Herb Dean for the 47th time goes you you need more you need to do more more action more action clap clap more action clap clap more action it’s like oh my God but I got money on copil I have a shoey bet against you on copil love and standing kopilov up is very bad for business because even though he’s been on top for four minutes of the round if he gets hit with two good strikes and a h kick and you know somewhat stanky legs that steals the round because he’s done nothing with the four minutes so it it’s it it’s in Herb’s hand herb can either allow little Cody to cash on Paul and on him or he can take it all away with a stand up so the referee kind of like Goddard right Goddard will be quick on a stand up or herb might let you fight for a long time Herzog he’s not saving you Herb’s not saving you guys like Godard will stand you up right away so I’ll admit I’m not so in depth that I’m like who’s refereeing these fights and taking it into account I’m just letting this [ __ ] fly and and hoping that my referee is not terrible on that night but there’s certain refs have different styles certain judges are looking for different crap if it’s all public information that’s released ahead of time maybe you would take note maybe if you knew ahead of time exactly all the fights that trelli was on on this next card or all the next fights that Saul was on he’d probably still bet them let’s be real you’re a degenerate but at at least you’d have some peace of mind of I’m probably going to get screwed going into it and then getting screwed and you know there’s there’s at least some prep and that’s just is like Dave trelli gets it right sometimes sa gets it right they mo they frankly in general they tend to get it right more often than they get it wrong we just remember when they get it wrong um it it isn’t an easy job but uh but yeah sometimes you’re like how on Earth did you come in or did you come to that conclusion anyway we got 14 fights coming from the KFC Yum Center in K in Louisville Kentucky nobody’s eating before we even get into the fight nobody’s eating KFC in the home of fried chicken in Kentucky right like nobody’s enjoying maybe they eat it but like it nobody’s saying Yum after they eat KFC right like kind of C you stay yum until it rips right through your bowels a half hour later and you’re on the toilet but but like KFC to a nobody Canadian guy up north it’s like oh that’s delicious and then it ripped right through but when I go down south it’s like oh man this chicken games on a completely different level I would think ky’s chicken game is world class so how does KFC Thrive I don’t know just just the name the marketing uh the KFC Yum Center just sounds unbelievably stupid but uh they’re they probably paid a lot of money for it and they’re supporting the arena and the sports teams that use that Arena so some rich guy wants to throw some money at sports I’m all for it yum is actually like the parent company of KFC it’s just a funny it’s just a funny name for for a venue anyway we got Nas Dean ovav taking on Jared koner minus 120 for ovav plus 100 for Canon ear my initial thought and literally like moments ago I was like just flipping through tapology my initial thought was I know Canon ear is a little bit long in the tooth I know he’s a little bit old but this guy in five round fights like is able to put up insane volume the cardio is on point and I may still lean towards that way but I did look at why he pulled out of the Roman delites fight with a torn M and now I’m like okay now now this price cuz I was going to come into this show Cody and I was going to be like we have like the wrong fighter favorite here like I’ve never really been an emoov guy and he’s definitely ended up being a lot better than I than I thought he was going to be um but with that age and that type of injury trying to fight five rounds and pull up that type of crazy volume it’s a tough tough tough ask for anybody I’m still going to go with cener based off of the body of work and that you know pre-injury ability to land insane volume over the course of five rounds against some of the top guys in the division but I’m a little bit more hesitant to pull the trigger now I’m not going to lie but uh caner for me what about you yeah I’m in the same boat like it’s a Canon ear pick but you just don’t feel great about it because he’s been on for two years and he’s 40 years old and it’s an MCL tear and again it’s not like it’s an MCL tear and he’s 26 years old he’s rehabbed it and he’s going to come back better than he was before because of the time off he’s 40 years old that being said yeah he’s seven and2 at 185 pounds in the UFC and he’s fought in pretty much all the best guys and always shown a great account for himself because he’s so stocky and just big strong brick wall of a man is Tak down defenses checked out he can throw solid power punches but he can also throw volume and that’s like that versatility to him in five round situations he shown a number of times he can fight five rounds yeah he’s ripped up yeah he’s jacked yeah he’s muscular but he carries it that Marvin vtori fight he landed 241 significant strikes which is unheard of at the way class and unheard of for a guy again with his build you know Joe Rogan will always tell you all those big muscles and they take oxygen and you know the bigger and generally is the case the bigger and stronger you are you can’t necessarily carry it but he has a way of not necessarily loading up on every strike and that makes him dangerous in the Shan Strickland fight he got out struck 152 to 141 the reason why and I I thought desan won the reason why I could see them going at the opposite way in caners he lands the bigger strike strickling comes in with that little step and that little jab caner loads up a little bit more so two-year long layoff knee injury all bad things but it’s not a career-ending injury and there’s no reason to think that he suddenly lost his gas tank and for the record he’s fighting a guy in nardine imov that’s not known for his cardio and in fact the last time I guess the last time against doit he went five rounds as well but but he cardio doesn’t look super deep to me so again the Canon ear pick is based largely on the fact that he’s got cardio he’s had cardio in the PA in the past he’s got that pace he’s got that volume he’s got the big strikes as well I don’t think imool is going to shoot for the takedown um so I think it’s mostly going to be a striking battle but once imool touch tastes a little bit of that power from caner I think he’ll start to reel back he’ll start to backpedal he’ll start to take his time and then slowly just like the the his fight against uh Shan Strickland just he’ll slowly Wilt over time and allow kir to take over when I look at ovov he’s coming off a couple nice like fights the it’s last one against Roman deletes you know he puts up 112 but keep in mind he puts up 112 against a guy that’s absolutely curled over dead dog exhausted exhausted and he lands 112 but in a five round situation Canyon ear shown he’d land 150 to 200 so so if you’re looking at which guy has that Superior against the best guys in the world against a former world champion in Shan Strickland against a former World title Challenger in Marvin vitori meanwhile imoa is fighting Roman delites Chris Curtis was a no contest he fought Shan Strickland but again the longer the fight went you saw not built for the five rounds Yokem Buckley won aged well but uh you know not exactly the greatest fight and then in Prior fights you know his fight with Jordan Williams his fight with Phil HW he’s got a gas tank issue so you’ve seen him gas in three round fights in the five round fights he he gassed against Strickland he gassed against doit is that doit was so unbelievably gassed he wasn’t like presenting any type of danger there was he wasn’t making him work so he was looked a little bit better in that fight still only 29 still getting better if you look at where both guys will be three years from now imool will be in title contention if not a top five to 10 guys still and Canon year might be done but as of right now I I I got to go with the back class I got to go with the experience I got to go with the proven cardio The Proven durability The Proven experience the competition level all of that stuff Fades towards Jared koner so close fight tight fight tough fight for koner coming off the layoff but again I think he finds a way to get it done over the course of the probably decision five round decision and then you’re going to need the judges to get this thing right but I can’t imagine people from Kentucky love people from Russia so hopefully from France and Russia oh that’s like ky’s two biggest things that they hate really when you think about it but uh all jokes aside I think kir edges out a competitive decision gets it done over the course of five all right yeah we’re on the same page there and let’s I frankly I think like if there wasn’t the injury concerns I think we got caner at like minus 150 here um I think the the the price is the injury risk the the unknown is baked into it to get Canon near at plus money it seems kind of wild based on like he’s fought everybody um yeah question marks around his age and an MCL te but sorry shockingly he shockingly he also has a two-inch reach Advantage so imov 6’3 and he gets away on playing that long man game right but caner what makes him so dangerous is at 5’11 he’s got a 77 inch reach so he’s got a nasty jab on him as well and and again I think imal is going to come out looking to strike he’s just going to realize quickly oh man jar caner is an elite level guy probably going to be pressing forward for the most part uh Landing in volume Landing with power Landing with tenacity and he doesn’t go away so I bet you it’s competitive but I think kir should get the nod all right we got Dustin jacobe taking on Dominic Reyes Dustin jakobi a minus 225 favorite Reyes can be had for plus 190 Reyes we haven’t seen him fight since November 12th 2022 he had after you know going to decision with Jon Jones and everyone there was plenty of people who thought that he should have won that decision my God has anybody ever fallen off of a cliff more than than than Dominic Reyes all of a sudden guy can’t take any sort of punishment his chin is just completely cooked um he’s eating big shots from these guys don’t get me wrong but you know knocked out three times in a row it’s one of those things that I feel like you know a lot of times you’re like oh he’s had a bunch of time off like after that type of run I don’t know what he’s been up to but taking a year and a half off maybe shaking the cobwebs getting your head back on your shoulders can’t hurt um it’s a I mean it’s incredibly tricky like I am tempted to bet Dominic Reyes but like for what purpose like he’s he’s obviously shown that you know Ryan span knocking him out in the first round that’s the other guys Yuri and and yon bovic two guys top top end guys in the division it’s like yeah that happens to some of the best guys but the span one looks really really bad obviously in hindsight as well I don’t know I Dustin jacobe finds a way to be in very very close competitive fights most of the time he has shown a little bit of Pop before but um I think it’s dogger pass but I’m gonna probably pass from a betting perspective maybe something will jump out to me over the course of the week with interviews and and uh and the weigh-ins and stuff like that I really want to bet Dominic gra at this price tag but uh I don’t think I’m gonna have the courage to pull the trigger Cody yeah so we were talking earlier about uh just about just like these tough draws or not draws these tough decisions and the judges and what are they looking at and that the problem with Dustin jacobe is for as talented as he is he’s a straightup decision guy like yeah he knocks out Kenny and Ja yeah he knocks out D Jong but he’s had a lot of fights in the UFC and for the most part he seems to fall into this groove of just getting into a a point style kickboxing match he’ll land 100 significant strikes he’ll go for it he’ll throw for it but more often than not he’s hitting the overs in his fights this fight against Dominic Reyes Reyes is shown to be chinny but he’s chinny against murderous power punchers span’s not a murderous power puncher but at least still a guy that’s you know a three minute fighter and in those three minutes does carry some power Yi Patza an absolute murderer Yan Blom former world champion Jon Jones you know he arguably got robbed in a fight with Jon Jones so had he won that fight with Jones he’d have the belt around his waist he’d have lost it subsequently probably to Yan BL bovit and it would only be a three-fight losing streak against relatively good competition right now it’s a four fight losing streak he’s 34 years old people don’t like him what’s he bring to the table match him up with somebody that doesn’t spark him in the first two three minutes match him up with somebody that doesn’t Spark in the first you know round or two then he might find his Groove he might find his confidence he might start going he doesn’t have like a ton of volume that’s kind of one like slight issue that I would have for Dominick Ry is I don’t know he landed 116 against uh Jon Jones but that fight went 15 or went five rounds sorry he landed 94 against Ain St PR that one went 15 minutes he had landed 633 against Yi that one almost completed two full rounds but one thing about about jacobe is he’ll land a 100 MH my thing with jacobe right is let’s say he goes out and he lands 100 but he doesn’t put Rays down and Reyes meanwhile doesn’t get put down so he’s able to get flowing a little bit and he puts up his usual 7580 but he’s going to be landing slightly bigger shots it’s going to be mostly a striking battle it likely goes 15 minutes in a jacobe victory unless Reyes is really all the way shot to bits but when you look at Dustin Jacob’s record uh his this is his losses in the UF Seas since getting resigned in 2020 okay he had that draw against ion calaba that draw uh was on two people gave Kaba the 108 round in the opener I guess and then the other people scored it for Dustin Jacobi he ends up getting a draw out of the situation his other loss is pretty much the same thing he loses to uh khil rry he out landed khil rry 120 to 85 okay most people thought he won the fight in fact he won of the rounds for the most part a good fight it was a competitive fight between two Strikers Jus jobi easily out landed him but they gave the split towards KH Round Tree his fight with Alonzo menafield is last time out he out lands Alonzo 93 to 68 he’s out working him he’s out beating him but menafield lands the bigger shots he drops them that steals round and then he wobbles them at the tail end of a round that otherwise Jacob’s winning but the the fact that you wobble is a big sign to the judges The Crowd Goes Wild and you lose the rounds so so jacobe be rocking a hella good record had these close decisions gone in his favor but when you’re a decision guy and you’re in close competitive striking decisions you’re bound to get robbed on the scorecards and he’s proof of that so him versus Reyes is two strikers for the most part I don’t think either guy’s got a ton of power but I would bet that Reyes has got enough power to wobble jacobe just as much as jacobe can Flatline Reyes they’re both similar jacobe slight volume Edge but again he’s he’s more of a Sean Strickland it’s like quick little jab quick little low kick quick little jab quick little low pick and then you land a shuffle upper cut and everyone goes woo and the judges side with that so at those odds I would not bet Justin Jacobi in fact I’m Pro probably G to get slaughtered on this card I could see it coming ahead of time but I have to take a couple greasy dogs and Rees is one of those greasy dogs so I’ll take Dom Rees and just hope to God that the year off the couple years off the time off I should say was good for his chin good for his uh his head and you know he he comes back reinvigorated Dominic Reyes to win by split or majority decision Cody 14 to1 I like it I’d want more but but 14 to one yeah I mean still that’s the only book I see that actually has it posted right now but yeah that that’s kind of like my mindset of like some of the crazy judging that’s been going on recently I could see this one being like yeah close competitive and that’s why I don’t want to be on the minus 225 Dustin jacobe either all right we got we got Raul roses Jr taking on Ricky ter i- 220 for uh Rosas plus 180 for teros we already broke down this fight obviously R rosis was supposed to take on Terio Ros pulls out on fight day like literally like an hour maybe before the fight was supposed to go off um and he’s got some sort of illness or whatever so they they’re running it back here I think we both picked rosos we thought you know what teros brings to the table is like pretty he doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense um so roses should be able to take him down there and he doesn’t really have too much like pop in the strikes that he does land so um it does seem like a pretty cupcake matchup for R roses to do what he does and and show off the skills obviously he’s super super strong um being young and inexperienced obviously his standup game is you know is is is definitely a work in progress at the very least but uh hero outside of having uh wealth more experience than him his his style does lend towards you know uh R roses doing what he wants in this fight early and often so it’s R roses R Ros is probably by sub but uh R Ros is on the money line for me what about you yeah so the last time like you said we already broke it down and I was all over ra roses I think that the kid even though he’s only 19 in that very much scares me we talk about it every week these guys that are just too young should probably be on the regional scene they’re going to blow a ticket for you and R Rose say who has blown a ticket in the past yeah I look susceptible to that but I love his style you know if you’re a fan of the show that grinding hard I can get takedowns weight bullies way too big for the weight class and the main thing if you’re going to fight that that bully type style that grinding type style that physical offensive wrestling type Styles you need the cardio to back it up and R roses doesn’t really seem to have the cardio I think it’s because of the monster weight Cuts because what 19-year-old kid can’t go for days but he gassed against Mando Gutierrez on the contender series the first two rounds he looks awesome the third round he looks massively sloppy Jay perin his first UFC fight he Subs him in the first round so you don’t see it the Christian Rodriguez fight he he dominates him in the first round takes his back backpacks him really solid first round performance the second round by the Midway point mark you see his gas tank completely fall off that’s what loses him that fight and then his last fight against Terence Mitchell in what world is Terence Mitchell going to get out of the first two minutes against this guy so he smashes him but one has to imagine that his cardio is not really all that good he pushes a hell of a pace but when you’re 19 and again I match make a lot of amateur fights when you’re young and you’re Brash and you have an ego and you get in there and that that you don’t have that maturity that’s how you fight you just go balls to the walls when you’re 3040 fight veteran you think Jim Miller fights the same way now he did when he came to the UFC no you start to employ these these veteran Savvy tactics you realize how you can slow it down and fight a proper game plan he’s just going hard and when he goes hard against guys that are no good he crumples them and he wins when he goes hard against guys that are durable and have a gas tank that’s where he’s showing a bit of a weakness and the thing with Ricky is Ricky is really not all that good Ricky is a terrible stylistical matchup against R roses like it’s a bad matchup for him but but he’s durable man like the guy can fight 15 minutes in fact he can I don’t love his volume but he can fight the third round is generally his best round but again he’s short on Knockouts he’s short on submissions at least at a high level I don’t see him finishing roses so he’s got to make sure that he wins two and three right that would be the key just like Christian Rodriguez you got to win two and three lose the first okay that that’s probably gonna happen you need to rally and take two and three I don’t know that Ricky does that he may win the third but once he’s down 02 and he doesn’t get that finish in round three he’s going to drop the decision what I will say is we’re all over him the last time the fight gets canceled the fight gets canceled because R roses Jr has health issues due to the weight cut so when you’re 19 you’re just getting bigger and bigger you’re not getting smaller and smaller so that weight cut is still a problem here yeah it was a weight cut because then they said that they were going to book it again like a week later at 140 pounds and then Ricky was like I never got offered a contract for a 140 catchweight and then they were like okay the fight’s off all together so to me that’s he’s got health issues health issues generally flare up when you’re cutting 25 pounds and in this case he’s a 19-year-old kid like his body’s not fully developed he looks like a full grown man don’t get me wrong and that’s why he’s successful what he lacks in technique at this stage in his career he makes up and just brute fourth uh force and athleticism youth he’s got all that going for him but he’s prone to make mistakes Uber prospects like Christian Rodriguez can figure him out Savvy veterans can figure him out Rick’s neither of those things but again durable enough to maybe present him some problems the later this fight goes um we had ba basil HZ last week right but we did talk about the fact that maybe you’re overring him because he looked good against Jack Melena maybe you’re underrating Mickey G and Mickey G fought one hell of a third round because once you gas out by pushing this hell of a pace HZ pushes a hell of a pace that’s why he gassed out against Jack that’s why he gassed out against Mickey Gul so to me Rose is going to be the same thing he’s not a Savvy savier veteran um like you saw this past weekend he’s a young kid the reason I get back at to it is two things two things here okay one you touched on this it’s The stylistic Clash Ricky turos when he fought uh Brady heistad Brady heistad was like 21 years old he was like a super young kid with n nothing other than a little bit not a little bit it was a decent High School wrestler okay with that high school wrestling Brady took him down six times and damn near won the fight lost a split but took him down six times with nothing other than that one thing then his fight against Kevin natividad his last time out natividad I believe wrestled that ASU got a little bit of college wrestling but still he gives up seven takedowns to him and when he gets taken down sometimes he’s got a a problem with giving up his back you can get those two hooks in that’s Rosa’s favorite position so I just don’t see how roses doesn’t get at least one or two takedowns in the first probably take his back get a Tak down in the second likely end up on the back and then in the third round if he’s too tired to get him down then just grab a hold of him press him up into the cage so again the style Clash I’m taking R roses the second thing is I really like that the last fight got can I love it I love it assuming he makes weight assuming he looks good on the scales the last time he was compromised he was sick had they booked it a week later at 140 you still got to cut another significant amount of weight and you just got sick a week ago these are bad spots you don’t want to bet them in that spot now you take five months off and to me that’s significant because the kid’s 19 years old like five months off is like 2% of his entire life so the version that you’ll see five months later is going to be much better than the version that would have fought five months ago sick so I’m glad glad it got cancelled I’m glad it got rebooked and I I still think roses is destined for good stuff they just got to matchmake him properly it’s all about proper key matchmaking they gave the guy Jay paron they gave the guy Terrence Mitchell Christian Rodriguez they made a mistake it was like they thought he was an Uber Prospect Christian Rodriguez is apparently an Uber Prospect one kid’s 21 one kid’s 19 throw them in against each other turns out Christian Rodriguez is the real deal R roses need some fine tuning but they go back to just selective matchmaking and who follows it paren Mitchell how selective is that they book Ricky the fight gets canceled they don’t book Ricky elsewhere why couldn’t he have foughten a week later two weeks later they sheld him for five months to book them again because this is the fight this is the fight that makes the most sense for R and I think they know that so um yeah that’s where I’m at he’s the new poster boy for something called Riz farza or Riz Pharma there Cody Riz Fara what’s the decision prop on that cuz Ricky T man Ricky tough and R was a quick yeah I was looking I said originally sub but like I mean Ricky’s never never Rick’s never been subbed too man K and wrestle got good cardio been in the room with Killers his entire career so I think he’s durable enough to make it yeah yeah no I I I don’t I’m not entire yeah I don’t love the subr to be perfectly honest it’s already been kind of steamed and and and yeah he he’s going up against a a very credible veteran that that has half decent grappling in that respect so yeah the the decision prop is probably how I would approach it but yeah be prepared for like round three to feel and look very very ugly by the time you get to that point um we got Bruno fera taking on Dustin stz Fus Bruno Ferrera is a minus 260 favorite stus can be had for plus 220 who you got so this this is a lot like the Dominic Reyes pick I’m either getting sparked in the first three minutes or I’m winning this thing the long the fight goes potentially uh I I think that Dustin stus could potentially pull off the upset the pricing looks good enough to take the shot why not take the shot so stus has kind of made a career out of just blowing it late that’s his thing he’s got decent cardio he’s got decent skills he just don’t tie it together very well but he’s got a couple nice wins like before he signed to the UFC he had beaten some decent European level Talent he’s originally from Pennsylvania wrestled in high school and you know anything about wrestling in Pennsylvania like it’s pretty high level and he wins on the contender series by slamming Piper and breaking his arm freak win freak injury probably wouldn’t happen again but all the same Piper’s really strong for the first 10 minutes of a fight and the fact that he picked him up and dumped him on his arm like that boy can wrestle man debuts in the UFC and here in Line’s the problem is that they’ve booked him pretty stiff like to the Casual fans they might not know or respect a lot of these guys but Doo Vieira Kyle doas Gerald mirart Abus magam off like he’s he’s he’s he’s two and four in the UFC officially but the four losses God damn now again you look at those four losses okay Rolo Vieira he’s winning the fight he’s on his way to beating rodulfo Vieira and he makes a bonehead decision in the third he gets caught in re Naka choke he gets subbed by Rulo one of the greatest black belts competition black belts you know of the era uh tough tough go but he was looking pretty decent his next loss against Gerald Mard it’s much of the same he’s winning the fight it’s not like this is a guy that you can say oh he’s two and four and he looks crap in those losses he’s fighting a good if not moderate level of competition and he’s looking competitive against them against Rolo he was out striking him 67 of 49 again he just he got subbed against Gerald mirart he got the four takedowns he’s winning the rounds he’s on his way to winning he gets swept he gets his back taken B me againsts re naked choked a second time embarrassing because he’s a black belt but all the same it’s like happens against tough guys his fight against AB Boose whatever he gets steamrolled but his fight against P Sorano so now everybody just they assume the guy’s no good and he comes in as a plus 260 Underdog against Sorano and all he does is just stick around he’s got Superior cardio he’s got decent volume he’s got a striking game like he’ll commit to the Striking but at the same time he’s a planet eater BJJ black belt out of Germany and he can also wrestle so like he’s one of these guys that’s very much a generalist strike a little bit can wrestle a little bit has some decent Jiu-Jitsu not great at any one thing but he can do it all he could do it all and he can do it all for 15 minutes now at no point has he been considered chinny or had durability issues if you take his back in re naked chok him sure but Mir sharts made a career out of that rulfo’s made a career out of that easy easy those guys get your back you’re in trouble not really the case of Bruno who apparently is also a black Bel but doesn’t use it to get position and grab submission he just uses it to pound the crap out of you um again I would think that there’s a lot of pass here for stus but largely he’s going to have to get out of that first round Bruno we know he’s a tank engine for the first round but almost all of his wins on the regional scene first round first round minute into the second round uh first round first round 12 seconds into the second round first round first round first round first round debuts in the UFC or on the contender series minute 53 UFC debut minute 35 uh fight with Gregory Rodriguez 413 first round lost to rub boov in a minute 17 and then wins his last time out against Phil Hall in 458 so I don’t know for sure that he can fight a hard two and three he’ll look good the first round he’ll likely win the first round you might even get a better Dustin stus live betting number but if stus can just keep him at Bay and have him swinging those shots he’s going to start to fatigue he’s his win condition is that early knock out if eventually stus can get him to the ground and cause him to carry his weight and cause him to work and cause him to get into these scrambles he’s eting gas out man and if you’re looking at their level of black belt I feel like stus has got the advantage so because it’s a good enough plus money play there’s good value there there’s good price there I’d be willing to take them but you’re going to be nervous and puckered up for the first five minutes no doubt about it but similar to how stus has had success in his last fight it’s like weather that early storm and then just keep bringing that pressure keep bringing that pace I think that’s all stuff that he should be able to do last but not least the last thing to tip it in your favor is that uh Bruno’s a power puncher all day but again he’s wild and he’s Reckless he stands 5′ 10 and has a 72 in reach stus is a good siiz middle weight man he’s 6 foot with the 75 in reach so he’s got three Ines 3 four inches in the height you know two three inches in the reach he’s going to have to keep this guy at bait and make smart decisions but as the young the shorter man has to Wade in he has to crash the pocket that’s how you overcome the height differential and as he’s Reckless which you already know he is as he’s Reckless and he’s throwing those big murderous hooks over the top trying to close it that invites the perfect opportunity to change levels and take him down once you take him down hold him down hopefully Herb Dean or Jason Herz a refin it so they don’t stand you up but just make him carry your weight he’ll Tire second round he’s less dangerous third round I could see St was maybe even putting him away main thing being live betting opportunity or outright greasy dogs are going to come on this card you might not like it but sto might be one of them yeah I mean I I mean the the first round knockout and fr by knockout obviously are in play but like from a value perspective I not really seen too much to be had on Bruno Ferrera to be perfectly honest he’s minus 150 by knockout he’s plus 150 by knockout in round one it’s just like doesn’t seem like there’s very much meat on the bone I know that that’s the majority of his win condition but we have seen with him that he is swinging from the hip and and yeah the way that he fights I don’t know if he’s going to be able to you know continue to do that in rounds two and three um fights like that right yeah exactly stz F’s last fight against Puna who will talk about a little bit later on who’s going down to 170 um similar type of situation to that Bruno fight is just kind of mind your p’s and q’s let him whiff a little bit at air and then when he’s a little bit compromised a little bit slower try to get this fight to the mat um whether it’s just control or or you know to finish him off down there remains to be seen but I think it’s it’s a dogger pass type of situation as well Cody all right we got Julian Marquez taking on Zack ree minus 13 for the Cuban Missile Crisis Julian Marquez Zach ree can be have for plus 110 your thoughts yeah honestly this one is like the toughest one to gauge for me personally when I look at Zach ree he’s not some young Prospect by any stretch he’s six and one which is a young Prospect type of record but he’s 30 years old and like he’s got an amateur fight against Kevin Hollen that dates back to 2012 so apparently the guy’s just been around the block like uh at least has been training in the sport to some level for a long time but he’s kind of short on on experience he ends up going I think four- one as an amateur three in one four- one as an amateur turns Pro and again it’s not like he’s beaten anybody good they’re not bad a win over Aaron Phillips not terrible his win over uh Eli oronov on the contender series you know the nice little armar setup but he’s a just a monster of a man dude 6’4 77 inch reach big long athletic guy uh he’s another first round finisher his win conditions the first round all six of his Pro wins have been inside the first round when you see him he fights Reckless again like these guys that just haven’t had to change their style because it’s worked for them and I don’t know that he’s going to be able to keep it up so there’s questions about his cardio there’s maybe I wouldn’t say questions about his durability like he got power bombed his last time mode against Cody Brundage so I mean like I’m not going to fault him too much for it but he had nasty nasty guard game prior to that he loves to throw up those long legs he loves to try to hunt for submissions try to get an armar try to set up a triangle choke it was to his demise but I liked how active he was standup meanwhile it’s like he’s hard to get agreed on because he’s so big and he moves quite well for a big man it’s like where do you set up your shots Julian Marquez at his best probably just dog walks him I would think you know just walks him down uh the bigger man obviously has to fight at range and in a bigger ring which they’ll be able to operate in in Kentucky yeah maybe ree backpedals that outside but he’s a first round finisher and he’s not had to backpedal and nobody’s pushed him backwards so it’s entirely possible that when somebody does that to him his cardio just lets up as much as I’m like okay I’m fading the guy there’s not enough experience there’s not enough you know uh deeper into fights footage that you can reel back on and kind of see how he’s going to adapt to certain situations he’s in a good gym but it’s not as if he’s got the best training Partners around he’s not some Uber Prospect who’s who’s young he’s just got a very active guard and is a big guy it’s not quite enough but then as you go to write him off Julian Marquez is an apple pie [ __ ] and he’s just waiting by the window sill for you to put out this nice piping hot apple pie that you just you just wanted to let it cool down just like Grandma used to do and he’s waiting in the bushes to come and drop a deuce cuz he’s massively injured he doesn’t fight very often so as much as there’s legitimate Talent there he’s like really durable got a hell of a beard on him his uh Miley Cyrus call out games weak as hell who’ he call out who was he trying to date it Miley Cyrus he was doing like the podcast with the p*rnstar wasn’t he yeah remember he was like trying to get a date I don’t know it doesn’t matter because it’s not fight related my brain is already phased it out my point being is that when he was on the contender series and he was training with James Krauss and those guys went over to Las Vegas was putting in some solid reps he was just a tough durable guy can come forward can take a frying pan in the face and even though his striking style is not refined it’s kind of brutish uh if he hits on you he’s going to do some damage his fight with Phil HW Phil HW is running away from him and dips his head right into a head Ki classic but he catches out as an underdog he has an initial run in the UFC that ain’t so bad couple decent wins here and there it’s when he loses it’s bad weight cuts his body fails him and he puts in these real poor uh performances uh against Aliso Duo he loses misses weight comes in at 190 lbs and the reason why he was 190 and had a bad weight cut is just like again he’s got a lot of health issues loses that fight uh comes back geez it was two and a half years later so bodies failing him in 2019 two and a half years later he comes back against Mackie poo now if you remember the Mackie poo or you care back to go back and watch it he’s losing the fight he’s losing the fight two nothing to macki poo and he ends up subbing him in the third now you can make an excuse it’s two and a half years off and there’s a ring rust and it was it was cool that he at least made it back from that type of injury cuz he had major surgeries multiple doctors told him you’ll never fight again and he comes back and damn near loses to Mackey if you look at Mackey and all of his subsequent fights since then he would go on to get cut from the UFC and now he’s currently losing on the Tough Enough Regional scene in Las Vegas most most notably or most recently lost to Eric mcino in his last fight a few months back so to be losing to Mackey it’s like the bottom level of guys that you’ll face in the UFC he didn’t look good he gets a fight against Sam alvy after that and he does sub him hurts him Subs him doesn’t look good watch the fight his his reflex aren’t quite there that pressure game is not quite there his durability seems like it could be a little bit fading his cardio is certainly not there I don’t know to what extent the guy can push himself in the gym because he’s got these health issues pulls out of a fight with Jordan Wright nobody pulls out out of a fight with Jordan Wright unless they’re on their deathbed would be the only situation that would call for you to pull out ISU so he probably was on his death he probably was on his deathbed yeah I know even though he’s a two to one favorite over him he pulls there due to health issues and it’s not like he hurt his MCL it’s not like he hurt his laborum it’s not like he had a staff infection it’s like he has health issues so comes back loses to Gregor Rodriguez in the first round last fight against bario not doing terrible but you saw him just absolutely fatigue gas out and get TKO out in the second he’s just not the same guy he used to be he’s racked up six fights in the UFC since being signed back in 2017 so it’s been six years and he’s had six fights uh and he’s three and three over that time those wins are nothing notable and he did not look good in the vast majority of them and the losses he just doesn’t look like the same guy so I just can’t really get behind that anymore Rees meanwhile he does not have the experience he does not have all this he’s 30 years old he has none of that but he doesn’t have the the wear and tear doesn’t have that those like long mile on him so when you’re 64 again we just talked about in the last fight when you’re 6’4 with a 77 inch reach Marquez who certainly ain’t no Floyd Mayweather Paul he’s going to have to crash the pocket and it’s something he used to do back in the day quite effectively but now because of the injuries and the time off and the ring rust and the cardio uh he just doesn’t do it very effectively anymore he might have a good first round if ree can survive that first round he could be able to take over and then as I say okay but why not just take the Reese play well how do you know Reese is going to take over in the second round you’ve never seen him in the second round so this is such a greasy fight it’s a it’s a 14 fight card I would much rather it be a 12 Fight Card uh kill two fights off this card if it was my choice if the MMA gods were like Cody two sacrifices right now this is it because it could go either way man I have very little expectations I have very little confidence no but if I but the name of the show is doger pass and so it’s like just take the dog but a lot of books have this at like 115 each side so there’s not even really a dog yeah uh this program we’ve gotus 130 plus 110 so Reese is the dog that’s the side I’m that’s the side I’m regardless that was yeah regardless that was the side I was going to end up taking but it’s a shot in the dark dude it’s a lot of assumptions on ree’s part yeah Marquez was doing the show with Kendra Lust for a while but I was like while you were talking there I was going on going on to their YouTube channel is that all Paul that’s all that’s all they’re you they’re youn Channel maybe Pat’s got you know Pat’s got the the security unlocked down here you can’t go on to those websites that’s a lie of course but uh not no that would be a terrible boss if that was true yeah there’s why why on Earth would you ever have to come to your your place of work and and and go on to those sites I suppose for the purposes of uh of of capping Marquez versus Reese this is going to be a slot Fest Cody um and in a slop Fest I am more like likely to go with the guy who’s a little bit younger a little bit less wear and tear we have seen submission skills obviously against Brundage getting slammed on your damn head that’s not a good time but Brundage is pretty physically imposing guy I don’t know if I don’t know if uh Marquez has that in his back pocket if he gets caught in that exact same type of situation um and yeah Reese is longer probably has a little bit more pop in his hands I feel like from looking at like what he was doing on the podcast and stuff last time they posted anything from that podcast was September of 2023 I’m thinking they stopped doing that the money stopped coming in and then now he’s back in the gym now he’s fighting again because he needs that paycheck I like it am I reading into it too much way too much it’s none of my damn business but uh we have to make a pick and the pick will be Zach Reese as well for me All Right Moving On Down we’ve got Miguel bayaza taking on punah hel Sorano at welterweight bayaza is a minus 190 favorite Sorano can be had for plus 165 I see bayaza has been doing like a bunch of grappling tournaments and stuff um this fight seems very very like one way or the other we’ve seen Baza knocked out a whole bunch Sorano when he broke into the middleweight division was knocking fools out and then he kind of got exposed a little bit um he was always really undersized there but he could definitely crack it’ll be interesting to see him at 170 I was looking through his Instagram a little bit and um I mean he’s calling himself skinny Sorano we’ll see if he’s actually able to make it on the scales you fam not so famously INF famously when we were at uh pfl Sorano walked right behind us and you’re just like that guy’s a lightweight I don’t care what anybody tells you he’s a lightweight I was just like you should go tell him that and uh yeah either way so I feel like you’re going to take bayaza you’re going to say bayaza is going to get the takedowns I think Puna knockout and Puna knockout round one are awfully spicy I actually took a little bit of Puna knockout and Puna knock at round one plus 300 and plus 675 cuz I feel like new weight class he was always undiz for the division and he’s taking on a guy who has been knocked out and knocked out early against against other guys so um it’s an interesting fight it should be a banger should we should have you know violence depend regardless of who wins in this fight but I’m going to side with you know a career Resurgence for Sorano here I’ve lost a lot of money yeah buy or beware I’ve lost a lot of money betting on this guy so could be wrong again I’m I’m honestly I’m honestly shocked that you’re betting him because as I remember the story in my drunken State Sorano walked by and I was like oh it’s punal Sorano and you were like n not that impressive so I was like oh Paul took a dig as Sorano it’s on and I thought if they actually fought Sorano probably wins but one punch Paul lands that [ __ ] up in the chin all over uh San is very unimpressive man I mean his problem is his cardio okay if he knocks you in the first round great he does not knock you in the first round his skills and everything just Falls right off a clip it’s a bad look when he fought Jamie picket on the contender series he lost the third round to Jamie Piet huffing and puffing Gass bad look when he wins yeah sure Oscar pichota dusco todorovic his fight with Brandon Allen soon as he got out of the first round gases that’s twice his fight with Nick maximov everyone’s saying oh soran wrestled in high school Sano I think was a state champion in Hawaii you know he’s got a tad bit of Collegiate Experience the guy knows how to wrestle Nick maxoff takes him down 11 times and absolutely blankets him but terrible fight sorano’s volume’s low his taked down defense is spotty and he’s got weak cardio issues his fight with Roman kopilov is much of the same he got knocked out in that fight but you’ll remember kopilov who’s got cardio issues for the record absolutely toasts him because he once he gets tired he’s got no defense he doesn’t he only throws singular shots so combination Strikers like copyof can eat him up but all he’s doing is Big right hand big left hand leg kick big right hand big left hand not setting it up not setting traps not using his footwork it’s just like singular strikes maybe a onew mostly not straight nothing’s linear like I can’t get behind it so but he but he gasses against kopov so now he’s gassed against picket but he won he gassed against Brandon Allen he gassed against Nick maxo he gassed against Roman copyof and his last fight against Dustin stus okay I’ll give you you know maximov wrestled like one season of maybe it was two seasons of uh community college wrestling and he took him down 11 times and then Dustin stus who wrestled in Pennsylvania in high school takes him down four times like his takedown defense is T rash now the move to 170 that that actually makes sense right because he’s not physically strong enough at 185 pounds to be stuffing the takedowns but Paul it goes beyond that it’s like he’s he’s just a lost fighter he’s one and four and his last five fights the fact that the UFC hasn’t cut him is a testament that he’s got the best manager in the game Ali abdal aiz but his career is way stalled out and when you lose a fight it’s like damn we lost a copula okay what what can we do let’s just work on cardio then your next fight you gas out against against stole foods and get dominated in the grappling and get choked out even though you’re a fav big favorite over him another bad look so you go back to the drawing board but you can only fix so many things so this happens with 32-year-old fighters who are in a career rut one in four four over the last five when they can’t figure out what to change it’s like I’m just going to drop another 15 pounds that ain’t easy man 855 to 170 is not easy and because he already had suspicious cardio to begin with either he melts him in the first round or he doesn’t and if he doesn’t I think that Miguel basa takes over Miguel basa yeah okay he’s chiny fair but it’s not like he loses to nobody’s chaos Williams tough folo F bit of a Nobody But Andre f a little bit of it’s a bad one but if he only has if he only has one thing it’s that he can strike you know he can strike he’s got some power he’s serviceable for a round or two it’s not a great one but the kid does the right thing at the time he’s 29 years old so he says no more sparring no more taking the MMA fights but he doesn’t want to just sit idly by and he’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu block belt so he just starts working his ground game working his grappling working it over and over competing in Jiu-Jitsu tournaments like you mentioned and he’s been doing quite well he’s still only 31 years old now he’s coming back into MMA before he left MMA he was known for striking kid’s fast he’s got a nasty calf kick he’s got some decent power in his hands he’s got some okay volume at times um he was known as a striker now he gets melted twice he falls back on his Jiu-Jitsu and what I think you’re going to see now him coming off the layoff is somebody that can in fact do both he can strike but he doesn’t want to get chin checked anymore so he’ll strike with Puna long enough for Puna to load up on one of these big overhands and then I think he’s going to drop down and shoot the taked down is bz’s wrestling good it’s not great it’s not great but the fact that pun has been getting taken down by mostly just you know Jiu-Jitsu guys let’s say uh s who’s mostly just a BJJ black Bel maximoff mostly just a BJJ blackbell even Brandon Allen never took him down but mostly known for his grappling so there’s other fights on this card we said the same thing I said the same thing Dominic Reyes if Reyes gets sparked in the first it’s going to happen if he doesn’t he’s going to be a problem Dustin stus stus could get sparked in the first round if he doesn’t it’s going to be a problem this is the other one if Sorano gets SP is a sorry if basa gets sparked in the first round well then it is what it is a somewhat chinny fighter if not a fully chinny fighter taking on a guy who’s a first round knockout kind of guy that’s fair but I’m not betting on that I’m betting on that if that first round knockout doesn’t materialize what does this guy go to his plan B C or D and these guys that I’m fading here they don’t have cardio cardio wins fights this last car people said it was boring because all the fights are going to decision yeah that’s what happens the world class athletes that train and prepared they’re going to they’re going to get rounds in and if you can’t give me rounds it’s problematic so wait to see wayin wait to see skinny stano wait to see you know what the number is and how good he looks but the bottom line is that he’s only going to 170 because things ain’t working for him at 185 and he’s a lost Fighters searching for an answer so I don’t think this is it I think it’s a tough enough matchup that Sorano drops a fight and then I don’t know what he does after that probably goes with the pfl I would imagine and that’s why I bet him round one knockout plus 675 cuz I was just like okay if we get and I bet him by noo plus 300 but it’s like I don’t if this fight is going deep into round two round three it’s like I’m not going to feel good about my position I’m not betting the money line it’s just like the path is probably that round one knockout maybe he does it at like the beginning of like round two or something like that um but yeah the deeper this fight goes the worse it looks for Puna Sorano we are not doing any shoey bets or anything like that don’t don’t starty bet on this absolutely not no no he’s I always accept when you call me out and I never for the record I I didn’t even bring this one up I just said that like I but you just did now and now you need you need to accept you need to defend your on what are you talk what are you talking about I’ve given you the last two we’ve we’ve went we’ve went into these things I don’t know we don’t have to do one every single week I’m on a losing streak here I’ve got to mind my p’s and q’s I got to pick the the right spot so that uh so that you’re breaking out that filthy Barn boot next time out that that’s where my mind’s at in the shoy game right now but uh let’s move on to the next fight so that you don’t pressure me I don’t get any more peer pressure all right we got Ludovic Klein taking on Thiago Moises ludic Klein a minus 130 favor Moises could be have plus 110 you got what who do you got here bud yeah again this is a card full of these close competitive match ups that you could realistically see going either way and this is another one Thiago Moises has got that back class he’s only 29 years old which is shocking considering he been in there with the who’s who’s and he’s generally given himself a good account he’s a high level Brazilian jiujitsu black belt he trains out of American top team in his last fight against Mitch Ramirez you saw a new wrinkle to his game with those low C kicks that really just demobilized Ramirez and led to his demise but he’s very much a well-rounded pretty serviceable guy he shown durability in the past he’s shown good cardio in the past and again even though he’s young and still improving he’s got a veteran this to his game like a like a you know just he’ll employ smart ring IQ and do the right things ludic Klein meanwhile I can’t quite put my finger on it but either he got a new strength and conditioning coach or scientist or dietician but he’s like his last two fights he does not look himself uh used to fight a 145 and then actually moved up to 155 and then what he did with his frame is start just packing on muscle it didn’t necessarily play off right away beat Devonte Smith Split Decision beats Mason Jones that was actually a nice fight for him but his draw with J Herbert he should have lost that fight JY Herbert lost a point because he low blowed him and it was a super flat performance from Klein he lands 47 significant strikes which is more than Herbert but a very flat performance by Klein I didn’t like it and then again his last two fights now he’s changed it up man against ignasio Bandz he took him down three times he fought a very very smart game plan and again he still got power striking but instead of just relying on half having to land these these high kicks which he’s got a nasty high kick on him instead of having to land these these big flash strikes he’s walking his opponents down he’s implementing the fact that he’s a decent Grappler with decent takedowns takes down baham mandez in his last fight out against AJ Cunningham if a guy walked up to a punching bag and just you told him go go go balls for the walls for three minutes he’d probably look okay as well so he he absolutely torches the guy but all the same it’s like he looked really good physically in that fight and his striking looks crisp again he can throw in comb he can go to the body he can use those leg kicks to demobilize you and then he’ll go up top he does an excellent job of working all three levels he’ll hit you in the head he’ll hit you in the body he’ll hit you in the leg and he’ll keep you guessing his biggest fault in my opinion is he’s a low volume Striker he gets by on Landing 50 60 significant strikes at most he’s pick and chooses and when you’re a smart guy you’re not out there brawling like Justin gatei you’re picking and choosing those Superior fights the brawler can break you the brawler can come forward and he can just cause you to overwork and fight at a pace that isn’t really your pace but when he can operate at his Pace he’s always out pointing his opponents when you look at Thiago Moes he’s not you wouldn’t even consider him a low volume Striker he’s a no volume Striker his fight with Mitch Ramirez yeah I went to the third round he beat on Mitch he had Mitch’s back for like the entirety of the first round he landed 25 significant strikes Beno Stan trained him absolute train Bo and it’s gone but he landed 24 Ben San landed 101 to 24 for Moises 23 landed against mil Costa went to the second round he had landed 11 against Joel Alvarez who had landed 44 in that fight uh when he fought makev you can’t fault him there but it went to the fourth round he had landed 133 significant strikes so even though he’s a good competition block belt and he has good BJJ his takedown defense isn’t great and he’s not some flash whiz off of his back he’s on top of you different stories pretty good if he’s on his back not that good so wrestling advantage in my opinion goes to Ludi Klein he’s bigger stronger more physical guy I think he’ll be able to stuff the takedowns from Thiago Moises and keep it standing and no point him he’s a better Striker he’s a more powered Striker he’s a more volumous Striker I I don’t see why he could just sprawl and brawl his way to Victory but instead because he’s smart ring IQ guy he will sprawl and brawl and then when there’s a minute left or there’s a minute and a half left I don’t think he cares about going to the ground with him I think he’ll try to take him down end up on top of Moises land a little bit of ground and pound round ends secure the round and go on he is more of a decision guy we are prone to getting screwed on decisions because it’s the state of 2024 in MMA judging right now but all the same man like he knows how to just do more than you that’s it that’s it not a whole lot more than you unless you’re AJ Cunningham but just if you land 20 I’ll land 30 if you land a taked down I’ll get the taked down back like he he he has a good way of managing round clock so uh I think lud Klein figures out a way how to beat Thiago Moises yeah ever so slightly kind of like edges him out on the feet if there’s no takedowns to be had for Moises which I think is the big question mark If Moises is able to get takedowns and hold position I think he could have some success in that realm for sure but um yeah they’re both low volume but ludic Klein’s low volume tends to at least have a little bit more pop to it and I mean even Moyes is like what he has the win over Bobby green it’s just like only people that really scored it the only people who sced were two of the three people who mattered were the the the judges right like um it was uh pretty pretty pretty gross all the way around so yeah lud Klein for me as well and I will say that like yeah uh AJ Cunningham is kind of like a walking walking proof that you shouldn’t feed your kids dog food cuz that was just I mean that was just so I mean it was such a bad there he had no you watched him on Contender series and then you’re like oh they’re really going to put him in this spot against somebody with the experience of Ludovic Klein it’s it’s like the whole week here like uh we were on this very show being like they should not like this should not be booked like this should not be happening whatsoever and I know the stats don’t look nearly as bad it was it was an absolute drubbing it was not competitive it was not it was not what should be a UFC fight in my in my humble opinion any no but that that kid that kid was Arkansas tough right whereas like Moises is tough and infinitely better but like some of those shots that AJ took I think they send Moises crashing to the canvas but y again there just it’s another close fight on a card full of them but uh if Klein shows up and dude again just check out his social media or wait till the weigh-ins happen he is how should I say this noticeably saucy he’s taking his strength and conditioning very seriously right now is what you’re saying I think I think Moises is more of a guard puller than a wrestler like he can wrestle don’t get me wrong and he’s at American top team and he’s still only 29 and he’s all these great things but when you see him in there against more physically stronger guys and yeah makach chev’s badass and benois st’s badass I get it but like those guys fold him within his clothes they’re folding his clothes while he’s still in them like he’s not he’s a BJJ black Bel he’s getting absolutely destroyed I can’t say Ludovic Klein would do any better but at least he has the physicality that maybe he could stuff a lesser strength guy which I would believe would be this case you see guys all the time it’s like they might have good Jiu-Jitsu but if they don’t have the wrestling to get it there consistently they have to rely on their striking how’s their striking very low volume in this instance and to say oh his last fight he landed all those calf kicks yeah he still landed less than 25 significant strikes in that fight and One Singular move like a CF kick is just not enough for me to pick him against a superior Striker like like Klein so uh hopefully uh Klein’s doctor is on board and he runs this win streak to three straight all right we got Carlos pratz taking on Charles radkey uh PR pratz is a minus 240 favorite radkey can be had for plus 200 I mean prattis he obviously has you know that finishing capability but that fight against Trevon Giles like he was not looking good until until he got the Finish like it was very very low volume he’s losing most of the exchanges and then like we were we were pretty I believe we were pretty heavy on them we had him I think I had him by knockout I had him in some parlays and stuff like that it’s like I was feeling pretty nervous about it he does have that ability to shut your lights out at any time with like a Precision strike but the volume everything like that it’s definitely a big question mark with this guy um I’m nervous about laying a minus 240 price tag on him Cody but and rodkey kind of just keeps proven to come through as a as a sizable or half decent Underdog I suppose uh has he been no he wasn’t a an underdog against Blood Diamond was he he must have been the favorite against Blood Diamond nobody yeah yeah who could possibly ever be but I think it was relatively yeah he was definitely a favorite against uh what was the price against oh yeah he was minus 300 against him but yeah against urbina he was plus 176 gets the first round knockout against urbina I don’t know it’s it’s it’s definitely tempting as this price kind of grows to to take another shot on on radkey who was perpetually gener I mean I guess the blood diamond fight was pretty ugly mostly just like hugged the guy held him up against the cage just didn’t let himself win but there is some value in a guy knowing where he can potentially win a fight and sticking to that game plan I suppose um it feels like a dogger pass would probably a pass for me I don’t know if I’m gonna have the courage to pull the trigger on radkey here Cody what about you yeah I’m actually gonna largely agree I got rad key I think I’m going to lock him in as a dog pick this week but I could very easily flip-flop on that because I don’t like rad key and it’s nothing against him he’s got a fun fighting style I guess when he lets his hands go on the regional scene this dude’s pure entertainment but he makes a lot of mistakes and even though he’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt he largely just throws it out the window to stand and bang with these guys more problematic to that is that he was fighting at 155 pounds as of like two years ago so he’s not particularly a big guy he stands at 5 foot n He’s 33 years old so you can’t say he’s some type of prospect coming into his own and now he’s taking on a big guy 6’1 with a 78 inch reach so yeah Radke’s got some major problems on his hands a big strong physical guy way more KO power with more Pro fights if ragi tries to take him down like he did Blood Diamond great he couldn’t even take down blood diamond so how’s he going to take down this 6’1 Brazilian monster who fought on the contender series and fought twice for LFA and fought some decent guys on the Brazilian Regional scene and fought a couple Russian guys along the way like yeah I mean he’s more battle tested he’s got more experience he’s younger he’s got more power it just seems like he wins right but I go back to that Giles fight I had him against Giles and God damn he don’t do nothing I mean nothing he’s just staring at him staring at him the whole time so I go back and I watch this Contender series fight against Mitch Ramirez who by the way if you don’t know from the the breakdown we just did for toag Moises Mitch mirz is not good mirez is not good and again it’s another low volume striking Affair he knows he’s got power all day he’s got a 78 inch reach he’s not looking to establish the jab he’s not looking to play that long man reach he’s looking for you to try to invade his space and he counters you with that right hand but it’s a lot of waiting and again when you’re that long you can’t fight inside the pocket if guys want to fight at range with you it’s going to be a problem if guys can come inside fight you on the inside your arms are just too long that’s why it’s like don’t hook with a guy on the inside when he’s got these short he’s just going to beat you to the punch so if raty was a I fight from the outside kind of guy which Giles largely tries to fight from the outside himself yeah he could have some success racky don’t do that dude he’s chest to chest the the entire time he’s going at you the entire time what the only thing you can really fault for predus is that he’s just got no urgency and no real volume and he just like it just seems so lock to Deslin there raty is the polar oposite yeah the meththa fight blood diving was awful but he did what he had to do to win the crowd booed him he told him H I think it was a derogatory slur but he was pumped up to be there and then he comes in against Gilbert orbina and absolutely Sparks Gilbert orbina and then I’m watching that Fury FC I actually really like them the fury FC uh Jiu-Jitsu match right and they bring him in against Eric Anders so let’s just keep in mind here that Charlie radkey fought at 155 pounds as of two years ago okay Eric Anders fought at 205 pounds as of like two years ago Charlie racky’s 5 foot n Eric Anders is 6 foot one Anders won a national championship with the University of Alabama and was like the team captain that year um he’s a specimen in comparison to try racky so the match starts and racky is a goddamn dog in a bone man he comes out ander’s heart he takes him down he does really good for the 10 minutes the 10 minutes expires they go to overtime and overtime is sudden death whoever scores the very first point wins and Anders who’s twice his size and Radke’s tired from having to go against this bull of a man for 10 minutes uh Anders hits a quick takedown Anders ends up winning but it’s like dude he actually is a legitimate Blan Bel and he’ll fight anybody and he’s in your face and he’s aggressive and that causes problems because he’s taking on an opponent that’s just not that he wants to fight at range in a low Pace fight and hit you with something last but not least yeah radkey has the black belt and he has the takedowns maybe and he has the you know the the tight space but he can also crack dude guy’s got some knockout wins he’s got some legitimate knockout wins that left hook he slept urbin with he was setting it up and Landing it over and over and when you watch um the last time out for Carlos CES against Trevon GES it’s not only that he’s not doing anything it’s not only that he’s getting doubled up on the significant strike numbers he got wobbled a few times by Trevon Giles so I don’t think his durability is good I don’t think his cardio is good I think he’s just and I faded three other ones on this card he’s just a pure I could I could spark you if I if I hit you I’m putting you away and that’s that’s it’s just another one of those fights it’s another one of those fights where pray is probably knocks him out in the first round if he’s going to win maybe the first seven and a half minutes if radkey can really force the issue and get him down if he completes takedowns and he sets up shop on top that’s going to be a problem if he can’t get the takedowns but he can spend more time than not pressing You Up Against the Cage that could be a problem if you can just flash spark you with a left hook That You Don’t See coming because you’re expecting the shot that could be a problem multiple ways to get a win multiple potential win conditions when you pair that with a good plus money price tag it just makes it makes sense it’s why we call it the dogger pass right so uh as unsexy and awful as this is and again I can see myself flip-flopping because I’m flip-flopping so much on this fight I gotta go Charlie raty Underdog money dude yeah it’s a it’s a it’s a crazy card this weekend I’m not going to lie um all right moving on down we got Brad Katona taking on Jesse Butler Katona is the biggest favorite on the card at minus 600 Butler can be had for plus 450 your thoughts on on Katona being you know the stalwart probably the guy at like the top of the PRP I mean it’s ugly right it’s like I mean going into the fight against Garrett Armfield last time out you know we we know what Katona does and he’s typically a decision machine just his style in general though it’s like especially the way that they judge and score and score fights these days it’s like it is open for the back door you know it’s like if the guy can get up at the end of of a round and land some half decent strikes we know with these judges these days is like those three and a half minutes of control time with a little bit of ground and pound mixed in just kind of get thrown out the door uh thrown out the window um I think Kona wins I’m curious like maybe Katona by submission I expect him to probably go for takedowns here but uh I don’t know really what to do with this fight Cody but um Jesse Butler does not impress me much Jesse Butler does not impress me very much no um but then again it’s like you can make some excuses for him when you watch Regional show tape on him he don’t look bad so like there’s no glaring hole to his game he can strike he can grapple he’s Wy he’s got some decent uh wins on in on the regional scene before coming to the UFC beat msio Fen that’s a UFC veteran Rachel Hilo Demetri Ivy you know well traveled Texas regional show guys Louis Luna he did a very good job against Texas regional scene guys which is where he’s coming out of the day of he fights Jim Miller right and it’s short notice and he’s a big Underdog and he’s making his UFC debut against the guy that has the record for most fights in UFC history so why was he booked that fight I don’t know cool that he stepped up because he’s a 30-year old man at the time and it’s like this is my dream to fighting the UFC why not fight Jim Miller but it’s bad spot it’s a bad spot he gets knocked out right away 23 seconds but it’s at 155 lbs then they tried to rebook him right after that against sea Woodson at 145 pounds but he withdrew then they tried to book him against Jake uh jaki Seri at 145 pounds and he also with Drew now he’s fighting Brad Katona at 135 pounds so we all seen him get sparked by Jim Miller two weight classes up on short notice and that because he looks so bad and then has done nothing for the last two years on the sidelines that’s why Katona is a minus 600 favorite but does that mean Katona is a World beater that Katona has the skill to make this look like an easy Victory like not necessarily Butler’s a big guy he’s a biger guy and Kona what you saw against um last time out he’s in Toronto right it’s not his backyard because he’s from Manitoba but at least it’s Home Country somewhat close by I suppose he fights Garrett Armfield and he’s a minus 225 favorite over Garrett Armfield he’s supposed to win against Garrett Armfield Armfield did nothing other than straight punches down the middle man he brought he sprawled him out in the first round he’s winning the first two rounds on volume and straight punches third round Katona finally takes him down third round Katona fought a much better round and almost finished him late in it but didn’t and he lost the first two rounds he’s way too complacent there was an argument that you know a bad judge could have given it to him his own backyard they should have given it to him but they did because he lost the first two rounds in volume against Butler Butler’s a big guy he not big like the traditional sense he’s big for the weight class but at 135 dropping down two weight classes it’s not inconceivable that he’s not going to have some decent size for the class if Katona does not take him down if he struggles to take him down I don’t know man but maybe Butler just lands the bigger shots the more eye-catching shots when you look at Katona and my problem with them being six fights in the UFC all six of them have gone to decision when you look at Butler meanwhile and Butler is not fighting nearly the same level of guys but he he has more of a finishing style he’s not relying on the judges he tries to finish and just like you’re saying now you got a guy that might be way bigger than Katona and he’s trying to finish he’s he he he’s spending three minutes on on his back three and a half minutes on his back he hits a quick scramble he gets up and he just starts swinging mhm you know you know what strong Strickland’s best moment in the entire fight was against Paulo Costa the last 10 seconds when for whatever reason he was just like I’m just going to start swinging and none of it made sense none of it was set up none of it was was proper he just started swinging bombs throws a head kick drops him on the head kick gets him up hits him with two more shots another head kick partially blocked and then like a flying death kick through the air and that stole him that 10 seconds undeniably stole him an otherwise pretty close round yeah 10 seconds of work that’s all you have to do here so if katona’s minus 225 in this spot I like it if if katona’s minus 350 in this spot that would pretty much be where I’m at with it likeus 600 when you know it’s probably going to decision and if it goes to decision is katona’s nine minutes of top control enough was the two take Downs enough what what were they looking at who are the judges um for minus 600 I want I’m going to take you out in the first round or in the first seven and a half minutes or the second round but like minus 600s have to have cast iron cardio multiple win conditions an ability to finish or their opponent’s just absolutely the worst guy in the roster Butler you can make that argument that he’s the worst guy in the roster but you don’t necessarily know that he fought Jim Miller of all people and it was done in 23 seconds it’s not a true Testament of where he’s at two years on the sideline even though he’s not young he’s 32 now I believe the two years on the sideline you don’t know what he’s been up to and dropping down two weight classes is certainly curious so at minus 600’s not doing it for me thing is is that I’ve picked a bunch of greasy underdogs you guys know me I’m not going to pick a greasy Underdog unless it’s like I did truly believe it in my heart I think Butler is good value I think this is a terrible money line for Brad Katona but guy won The Ultimate Fighter twice Den guy uh you know has had six fights in the UFC he fought overseas he’s fought in much better level of competition he’s not coming off a 23 Second knockout lost to Jim Miller two years ago so everything Trends Katona there’s like a a sh*tty feeling in like the pit of your stomach that’s it’s not as easy as you might want it to be for minus 600 it’s Katona top ticket all day for me I don’t know that I get there I don’t know that I put him on the top ticket can’t deny that he’s not going to be on maybe the second line probably the second line you know third line at the absolute worst but similar to makev not being on the top ticket last week I would I would rather somebody else you know the money Line’s not everything you can understand when a fight could be closer than the money line suggests yeah Butler hasn’t been submitted and Katona really doesn’t knock anybody out like I know Katona submitted Bryce Mitchell on like The Ultimate Fighter many many years ago but like Bryce was pretty uh he’s pretty Raw particularly back then as well that one’s kind of like a still now that’s kind of a wild one I mean he’s still raw now but I think his grapplings come along way I wouldn’t expect if they ran it back I wouldn’t expect Katona to submit him but um but yeah Katona doesn’t really knock anybody out so yeah this one is ripe for like some craziness or like some you know maybe maybe I add that to my my Split Decision uh little poke there going make a note of it that that by Split Decision might be an astronomical because again no nobody expects Butler to do anything but at the very least wait wait until weighs before you lock in a Katona bet because if this guy comes in big in good shape I have some mutual friends like none close enough that I’d be like shoot to me straight but like we run in some mutual circles and they all talk very highly of them but you know he’s not proven it like I can only base a guy on what I’ve seen I haven’t seen it everyone’s the next GSP and there at least in Canada everyone’s the next big UFC star in their own gym in their own Hometown until they’re forced to face the other good guy from a good gym in a good Hometown and another people used to tell me like oh this guy’s a special talent he’s a special talent the thing about your special talent is that there’s another special there’s a kid he’s 16 years old he’s the next big thing in Michigan and there’s one in Indiana and there’s four in Brazil there’s nine in Russia and there’s two in in Peru there’s four in Argentina like like they’re all over the place that’s that’s the development of the game game so things pass you by they think he’s legit for whatever that’s worth I don’t know but again the two-way classes thing the the absence the Katona Surefire going to decision all of that gives me concern not enough to go the other way but enough to rethink it a little bit 100% yeah and like with these Split Decision types of plays like they’re obviously super super wide plus money like you’re expecting to lose most of them but uh you hit one of them and yeah you’re Prof you’re profiting um all right we got uh Andrea Lee taking on Montana Del Rosa Andrea Lee is a minus 150 favorite D Ros could be had for plus 130 your thoughts I mean the people’s Main Event right it’s the rematch that nobody asked for but is a it’s the perfect timing to rematch something that nobody asked for uh Andrea Lee like it’s not like she doesn’t have skills she’s got legitimate skills she’s very physically strong good kickboxing game her wrestling defense or takedown defense in particular that’s definitely always been the knock to her game her cardio is good but not great so especially if you come in with a wrestling heavy game plan she does tend to gas out the later the fights go and it just it hasn’t resulted in the best results as of late overall she’s 5- seven in the UFC but she’s currently rocking a four-fight losing streak so the fact that the UFC’s kept around they know she’s got talent and she they know she’s serviceable and they know she could be a good gatekeeper type but they need a confidence boost and she at least needs to go and prove she can get something done when I look at Andrea Lee I look at those loss and those losses are pretty much all two very good girls Miranda Maverick last time out Natalia Silva Macy Barber Vivan Royo Rox Sam out of fery who say what you will very traveled you know long the tooth veteran uh Lauren Murphy Joanne Calderwood all of these girls are pretty good for the most part so there’s not you can’t say for fight losing streak uh her skills have been diminishing she’s pretty much been fighting the same way this entire period of time it’s just that she’s been fighting the best girls going when you look at the last time they fought Andre Lee got taken down five times by montand de Roa she got taken down and then she would get back up and when she got back up she just beats up Montana de Roa out strikes her to the tune of 73 to4 got taken down five times got one Tak down of her own but out struer 73 to4 there’s a large disparity in the Striking in favor of Lee and the large disparity in the favor of the grappling for delosa didn’t materialize five takedowns didn’t get no ground pound didn’t get no real submission attempts couldn’t hold her down it’s not so good since then she just been kind of going through the motions I guess she’s uh also on a three-fight losing streak but against Macy Barber you know doesn’t really use a wrestling against tati SZ can’t use a wrestling against JJ Al for last time out she shot one single takedown attempt one one Tak down attempt to atton that’s curious because JJ Aldridge in the path to beating her would be taken down right and also Montel Rosa comes from a wrestling background her husband Mark Delarosa is her head coach he’s a Brazilian Jitsu black belt the game plan should revolve around her taking her opponents down and submitting them and almost every single time she’s complacent with just standing in front of them getting boxed up she got cardio she usually rallies for the third round she’ll her nose will be busted and gushing blood and she still wants to scrap she’s no doubt a fighter but her ring IQ does not exist she’s currently her and and Mark del Roa opened up their own gym so they’re running their own gym her training Camp’s been 100% out of her own gym she does not go to elevat fight team in Denver anymore she’s running her own gym with her husband in Texas and I don’t know man like I just can’t trust her to actually shoot the takedowns if she does shoot the takedowns this is where both girls have changed since the last fight one was just a wrestler one was a striker Lee knew she had to adapt so she’s tried and she’s on a four five losing streak but let’s keep it real man she fought Vivan Royo and she managed one takedown against her she fought Macy Barber they robbed her on a split decision she took Macy Barber down five times she took down Miranda Maverick an absolute Powerhouse she took her down twice offensive wrestling Andrea Le scores more takedowns per fight and has a higher takedown accuracy in the UFC to be real but she doesn’t even have to offensively try take down Montel Rosa it’s just that’s the progression to her wrestling that I think it’s good enough to just sprawl and brawler delar Rosa is not a stick to the multiple takedowns type person you know Maverick shot three for eight you know but she shot the eight takedowns Natalia Silva didn’t have to shoot any because she’s an awesome Striker Macy barber went two for two that one was a great grappling match I honestly thought she’ beat Macy Barber um again it does come down to wrestling versus striking but we’ve seen this fight already once five years ago you’ve got a girl on a four-fight losing streak taking on one on a three-fight losing streak so it’s basically loser Leaf Town match for either of them I just feel like Lee’s physically stronger should be able to keep this fight upright should be able to box her up and is the Striker and I know what I said about Mark Delarosa her husband’s a UFC Veteran running her Camp’s not great for the record Lee’s boyfriend is Brandon Davis he also UFC veteran and he runs her Camp so they’re both in a similar position but that’s what Lee’s been doing for the last number of years whereas delosa uh hasn’t she’s been getting in quality rounds with some of the best teams in the area or in the country and now she’s just kind of reeling back and doing her own thing so the ring IQ is too low the volume’s kind of low she’s not a great Striker her takedowns she doesn’t commit to them wrestling is really not all that good on top of that it just seems like it’s an Andrea Le spraw and braw type spot so I got Lee and then if you want to get a little spicy with it uh lee by decision she’s not knocking out delar Roa she’s not submitting delar Rosa so if she’s going to win she’s just going to out pointer when you said by I’m going to get spicy with it I was hoping be more spicy than than oh her by decision that’s not that’s not too it’s probably plus is it not plus money that’s for for it’s slightly plus yeah plus yeah plus 130 is that not spicy enough I guess I’m the guy on here talking about Split Decision props that are like it’s basically like it’s like the crack cocaine of MMA betting um no not it’s not very spicy but it’s very very you know likely and I I see it kind of the same way as you I think Andrea Lee just wins on volume Montana Delarosa hasn’t been domineering with that Gra Ling game plan in quite a long time now obviously taking on Tatiana Suarez that was kind of out the window in round one she had a little bit a little bit of success with with Suarez coming off of the Shelf I suppose but uh she stuffed a few takedowns in the first she had a bit of success there but then she got yeah and she got finished but um yeah Lee Lee on on volume Montana Del la ro said for all of her faults she has always been incredibly durable so uh credit word credits do on that front all right we got Daniel Marcos taking on John castanada uh Marcos minus 120 favor cast a could be have plus 100 your thoughts yeah again it’s just another one of these fights that you could make a very valid case for both guys I think either guy could win the money Line’s pretty close on either side I don’t disagree with it John castan has fought the better guys i’ would say he’s got more experience he’s got a very come forward style when you see Casado win it’s because he’s going forward casanada loses his opponents are generally able to push him on the back foot that’s where he’ll struggle now if you lost look at his fight with Daniel Santos it’s a crazy fight they both knock each other down but when Santos starts being aggressive and lunges at him with big shots he just not freezes up but that’s where he’s kind of a little bit vulnerable he gets hurt by Santos he gets finished his fight with wi gafarov in the second round it’s the same thing gafarov just explodes on with a series of strikes and all of a sudden he’s got Caston not’s attention but beyond that yeah again he moves forward excellent he’s got his wrestling that he can dip into his back pocket another guy that I would classify as a generalist and that he doesn’t he’s not exceedingly you know in any one one dimension there’s no one area that he really thrives in he’s just good at everything he can wrestle he can strike he can kind of do it all but it’s his movement he seems to be a little bit faster than Daniel Marcos and he moves a lot more than Marcos so if he’s the one moving forward moving side to side setting up his shots and can keep some degree of volume up I think he can win this fight he’s coming off and win over koho Kang nice little win three takedowns and 111 significant strikes landed that’s pretty solid his fight right before that against wi gaffo he got out struck 61 to 40 lucky he got two takedowns lucky he got the decision or the knockdown sorry but at the same time it’s the tale of two fights one of them’s all volume one of them’s no volume I need him if he’s going to win to come forward and let that volume go when I look at Marcos undefeated looks good um but again I guess I go back to the DAV Grant fight it’s like DAV Grant just the one coming forward and Dav Grant comes forward he starts out Landing him and he starts pressuring him this kid’s got tremendous output he lands 81 against Brandon Davis he landed 81 against a Richie Lang as last time out and it wasn’t even complete two full rounds and when you watch him on the regional scene all he does is grapple he’s barely even striking at all in the regional scene he likes taking guys down and just mauling them from top position and yet now he’s shown a completely different area of his game but he’s a little bit hesitant at times and he stands there if he’s the one moving forward I think that with the low CF kicks that he loves to use could demobilize John cada and he could outpoint him if cada doesn’t allow these leg kicks to rack up on him and he’s moving side to side coming forward and Landing the the better volume then CID anata might win this fight in both series I both cases I would think the fight goes to decision but you got two Strikers are going to be banging it out for 15 minutes so that’s not a Surefire guarantee either G in my head I got to pick somebody I’m I’m going to pick Marcos and just chalk up the dve grant fight to just an outlier it’s just one fight that he looked bad in Dave Grant has made a lot of really good guys look bad in the past so we’ll give him a pass and then dude he looked really good against Ori Lang he eye poked him kicked him in the groin and eventually it was a no contest but uh outside of cheating yeah dude he looked really good it looked like he learned from the grand fight dude I can’t just sit back I need to get throwing RI Len could take a hell of a shot Marcos was throwing so I will will give him that I think maybe he’s um gone back to the drawing board and at least you know uh made a point of going back over some of his past mistakes and addressing them and if he has then I think he can out point castada but anybody that says they got a hard lean on this fight it’s hard to get a hard lean on this fight both guys can win they fought 10 times you can see being five5 each side it’s pretty much an even uh an even fight on the money line it’s just got to make a pick somewhere I think marcos’s development slightly better than cadas and as long as he doesn’t get taken down and back up maybe he squeaks it Marcos even got that decision against Davy Grant in England so so much for home cooking bro um that one really pissed me off because I was on daav Grant as an underdog you had Dave Grant and and Dave Grant probably won that fight and and you’re thinking on top of that you’re like anything close in any of these rounds should be going to my boy who the crowd’s cheering for and all of that nope no nothing no home cooking no uh Yorkshire pudding for your boy um yeah it’s it’s a it’s an interesting I’ll I’ll ever so slightly lean towards castan just on uh wrestling and and and and volume I suppose but I don’t know man I think it’s a properly priced fight and I don’t really intend to um to make like a a significant type of play on either guy to be perfectly honest uh we got eduarda mura taking on denisi Gomes minus 170 for Moa plus 150 for G so you got okay I want you to talk some sense to me because I’m not I’m not seeing something on this match up some’s not adding at so Denise gums is a small undersized Striker who has no takedown defense and she’s taking on a girl who’s a weight bully doesn’t even make weight for the fights in this division is giant has gotten everybody to the ground with ease and Domina them on the ground why is it close I see some money starting to come in mura now good but like he looked too good to be true it still might be too good to be true but I’m not seeing it man I’m really not seeing it starting off with Denise Gomez first of all she’s 5 foot2 and she’s taking on eduard Mo’s 5 foot 6 so she’s giving up four inches in the height Department three inches in the reach Department she’s naturally physically everywhere a smaller fighter when she fights on I guess she she beats Ryan do Santos we’ll talk about a little bit later on the contender series but she had given up a takedown in that fight then she digs on Loma bu luk bu is a Muay Thai Fighter from Thailand who used to fight out 105 pounds she’s a striker by most accounts of what her style is she’s able to take her down four times with relative ease outg grapple her completely stifle her and neutralize her not only that Denise Gomez doesn’t really have a getup game her jiujitsu is really not all that good she doesn’t land off her back she doesn’t threaten with submissions but she just got outpointed now by a striker when she got taken down her last fight out against Angela Hill it’s the same thing Hill even though she’s a Savvy veteran and has had 20 fights in the UFC and has definitely improved her ground game just submitted her first opponent the other day she has over 20 fights in the UFC and she has never taken down an opponent more than two times in a UFC fight in none of those fights except for that one time that she took on Denise Gomez and took her down five times so her losses are to Luma lb and Angela Hill who are both Strikers and in both accounts or in both cases she gave up nine takedowns collectively and lost both fights and now she’s going from that to taking on Eduardo mura well keep in mind with mura she is a first round finisher loves to get those early finishes uh BJJ block belt solid solid grappling solid grappling on the contender series you saw against that J Silva she’s a minus 165 favorite right takes her down dominates gets the r could choke next fight against moner at Ruiz she misses weight and I’m not surprised she came in at 119 and a half because she’s huge for this weight Clause but that’s her style and people will say oh you know khabib’s a weight bully and makach chev’s a weight bully these guys are cutting such a man of away I like it I like it when you’re twice the size of your opponent and your game plan is just grapple that’s an effective way to win fights that’s what MAA does she’s had no real difficulties getting her opponents down so far from what we’ve seen when she gets her opponents to the ground she’s absolutely dominating them and from the monzerat Ruiz fight that fight at least goes to the second round you go back and you watch this Claudia Alves fight from last year it goes to the second round she ain’t slowing down Paul She is cardio looks like it’s pretty good I think she can finish you but if she didn’t finish you I think she’s GNA Bank two rounds and then maybe slow down or just win all three rounds so when I look at this fight with Denise Gomez it’s again it’s just it seems too clearcut I have a stronger more credited better Grappler taking on a smaller more undersized struggles with wrestling struggles with takedowns struggles with the overall grappling exchanges Within These fights I don’t know man I don’t know it just seems It’s women’s MMA I think that would be Pat’s answer to the question but uh I honestly think that this is like one way TR it’s like the Melissa G fight from a couple weeks ago like it could go another way it could possibly turn into this but it’s like you got a girl that’s that much better at grappling in a lot of these UFC spots they’re a lot more clear-cut than sometimes you sometimes we overthink it because we’re worried it’s women’s MMA but grappling dude grappling you got a clearcut a clearcut grappling advantage that wins more often than not yeah I mean if I guess with Gomes she does hit hard but I mean women’s strawweight knockout specialist not exactly kind of the the typical type of style that I think I think is what you would really want to like you know bet on as a long-term winning solution right so you just don’t see too many you know absolute knockout Specialists happen in uh you know in fights or fight to fight so it is it is a little bit dicey a little bit dicey um laying anything too too heavy but a lot of what you said makes sense to be perfectly honest my original thought was cf. model You know Denise Gomes was able to knock out Yasmin warigi um she had wrestling success against Bruna Brazil but wi she has taken on much more season much more polished Fighters much more experienced fighter she got really kind of exposed in the grappling department so who am I to argue with you I guess MOA is the play but uh I don’t know minus 170 uh women’s straway fight I don’t know if I’m going to be betting that to be perfectly honest let’s move on we got Taylor lapis taking on Cody staman lapis a minus 265 favorite staman can be had for plus 220 your thoughts yeah again another close fight I get it uh I got lapis the worry here being that lapis is more of a decision guy and Cody ston is very much a decision guy so this fight’s going to go to decision smart guy just takes it to go to decision but if of course if you don’t then uh yeah you need one side of the other I’m going to go with Lis but again I think it’s just going to be close contentious type spot with Lis he’s a smooth Striker Smooth Operator he fights like a guy that’s long he likes to play to the outside he’s got good leg kicks good long jab he doesn’t have that like really raw power to his game but he’s a finesse fighter and again he does everything technically very sound guys don’t want to stand with him when he fights them the game plan is almost every time smother and take that space away these are his last three UFC fights okay Leandro Issa when three for 14 against him so we he he took him down three times but he tried 14 attempts that’s a lot man his last two fights ago against cin Lain um the Irish fighter Le got him down two times on 11 attempts so those two fights right there it’s 25 takedown attempts he got taken down five times collectively but but 25 attempts and his last time out against Fred BOS he got taken down five times five times on 16 attempts like nobody’s allowing him to use space and operate all of his losses are when he gets smothered Up Against the Cage when he gets taken down if you want to stand with him be my guest it’s not a Surefire guarantee he’s going to knock you out or anything like that but he’s smooth he’s like a Cedric Doom you know like I wouldn’t put him to that level don’t get me wrong but like it’s just he does little things that are just very correct and and and out points you now that problem with that style is you’re going to decision these guys don’t know what they’re looking at so you’re going to need them to get it right but I really like what he does now now can he beat be beaten yeah of course if you can smother him in that space and there lies the kind of Catch 22 with Cody staman he comes from a wrestling base wrestled in high school Wrestled a little bit out of Michigan in college for a little bit uh guy can wrestle with the best of them when you look at his losses dude’s wrestling and he’s wrestling hard he took down Sona dong five times settled with a draw he took Alain Sterling down three times he took down Jimmy Rivera he took down Brian kellerer he took down Mor Mor Rob DeVos V the guy can 100% wrestle 100% two problems one his body’s starting to let go and I think that causes him to not wrestle he can he chooses not to and I think that’s his biggest problem his fight with Luan lerta well why would you want to stand with LAN lerta doesn’t really make any sense right he’s a better striker faster than you why not just take him down and smash him easy path of Victory Cody Stam went 0 for two in takedown attempts against Lan lerta not only could he not take him down he shot two over the course of the fight he did get out struck not did get out Struck it was uh 103 to 80 Lan Lera managed one takedown on him it was a super close fight I remember I had a ton of money on him and it was like oh my God I’m about to lose and he was a minus 400 favorite barely squeaked by him but he was very very cool and complacent with just striking he landed over 100 significant strikes but he was very complacent he doesn’t have any big Power he’s not throwing in any type of huge combination it’s just more so he’s got a bit of a karate flow to him a lot of balce light on his feet steps in one two and he and he’s content with it the morab fight when he lost the decision he was very adamant he thought he won he’s like man I landed the better shots I beat him and again if you look at it numerically uh he got taken down five times in out struck 71 to 48 but he believed he won because he gets complacent in there the lerta fight he got complacent in there and so he got burnt bad that very next fight against Douglas Deandra again he’s the favorite but he hardly went to his wrestling yeah the guy’s a fire hydrant but managed up just one takedown didn’t stick with it and eventually just gets outpointed scored a knockdown in the third round rileigh did a good job but got it pointed in the first two so I’m not going to say he’s got low ring IQ he’s a smart guy uh in real life he’s super personable I mean he he’s makes like 100 Grand per fight like he actually gets paid quite well but as a result they don’t give him easy fights and his body’s banged up he’s 34 years old which at this weight class is considered old but also he’s two and four in his last six fights he fights twice in 2023 twice in 2022 twice in 2021 I guess no once in 2021 once in 2020 yeah I guess he averages one maybe two fights a year he’s dealt with a lot of injuries I just get like a nagging suspicion that he gets in there with lapis and maybe shoots a half-hearted taked down attempt and Lapis has got good takedown defense that’s why you got to go five for 15 against the guy because he’ll stuff the first shot or two stav shoots one and doesn’t get it he’s not going to stick to it he’s not a chain wrestler he either gets you down right away that’s it or he’s not going to work for it if not he’ll bounce back at range and he’ll beat on his toes and they’re going to exchange shots and Lapis will slightly Edge him and it’ll be close and it’ll be contentious and it’ll go to decision and the judges are going to take 10 minutes to tally up a few numbers on a on a piece of paper that I think they edged towards Taylor lais Who’s just the better Striker a little more refined a little more work rate little cleaner he’s been active lately he hasn’t been kind of shelf to the sidelines staman staman comes in as big favorites in these fights and he doesn’t deliver right so now he’s the underdog is he going to deliver possibly but his last two fights have been like very worrisome to me he just doesn’t look like he’s as interested as he once was yeah that makes sense to me um yeah it’s kind of crazy that like outside of like you go through like his record and you go back to against alamain Sterling I mean he lost and in the second round but takedowns were 3-2 there um song uh it was a draw but he had five takedowns It’s a Robbery draw too like he beat s 100% he won that fight and they just the judge didn’t agree but like kind of since then there’s really not much now there’s some finishes going on there getting submitted by by SED with the uh the guillotine choke pretty quick obviously fighting Eddie weinland is just like well we don’t really need to go and spend too much time wrestling we just knock this guy’s head off get the get get get that 50gs baby type of situation but yeah ler of fight was kind of a big question mark uh Douglas Silva Deandra he’s a small little fire hydrant but I mean with his pedigree of wrestling you’d think that staman would have been able to you know really utilize that wrestling so you know maybe may maybe many many years of of doing the grind he just I don’t know he just doesn’t really seem to have he just doesn’t really seem to have it anymore so I side with you that like if I I really can’t trust in stamman to lean on a wrestling heavy game plan um against lapis and I feel like he’s going to need that type of style to win this fight so lapis probably wins a relatively competitive but convincing decision finally we got rayon Amanda taking on Puja Tomar minus 300 for rayon Amanda plus two 250 for Tomar um I’ve watched rayon Amanda in some of her in in some of her Invicta fights I couldn’t tell you who Puja tumar is Cody do you do you know much about her what’s the deal with this fight yeah puya Tamar puya Tamar is a five-time uh national champion in India for woou she represented them at a bunch of international tournaments Indonesia uh Bali she actually trains in Bali currently uh she was just a Wu Champion right National Champion not a world champion not a International Champion but a national champion India and Wu I’m not going to be the guy that sh*ts on Indian athletes but they’ve done absolutely nothing in the UFC arjan bll is the only one that’s ever won and he’s Canadian SP like 20 years in Canada learn how to wrestle in Canada you can call him Indian because he’s born in Indian that’s fair but I don’t know man I don’t fully give them that one puya Tomar becomes officially the first woman Indian fighter or woman fighter from India to ever be to the UFC she is not an Uber Prospect she’s 30 years old she comes from Super Fight League which was people like to last laugh at Alaska FC super Fight League is half of the organization that Alaska FC is it is God awful and that’s where she got her chops what you see is very much a wooo type fighter she’s in and out loves Sidekicks loves Sidekicks in fact she’s got a kick heavy approach she’ll just throw tons of kicks spam kicks spam kicks boxing’s okay she’ll switch to the Southpaw St it’s mostly just a land and the sidekick as like a rangefinder she’s in okay physical shape she’s got decent volume she’s got decent cardio but two things that are problematic is uh one she they’re both 105 pound Fighters that are fighting at 115 and I think that’s going to help Ryan do Santos because when you look at uh puya puya fighting at 105 and when the fights hit the ground she gets dominated on the ground she got no ground game she got this BL Sho she got this kick heavy style but awful so one Championship signs her her fight with uh well first of all this Hannah Kemp Subs her with an armar then 1fc signs her and Tiffany to Subs her with a first round armar then she takes on Jin King Ruan who was one and0 at the time and subed her with a triangle choke then she takes on Biden to win in a Muay Thai match which she lost and then she takes on the stamp faex right stamp faex is 105 PBS TIE fighter and I mean absolutely d destroyed her on the ground like just catches a kick and just kind of throw it wasn’t even like a caught kick it was like puya tried to throw like do a judo toss and in doing the most poorly executed Judo toss you’ve ever seen just gives up her back and all of a sudden you’ve got a 105b TIE fighter and she just absolutely goes to town and I mean smokes her flattens her out tries to grab the choke doesn’t get the choke flattens her out and just ground and pounds her puya has no way out she’s completely lost on the ground she’s a fish out of water by this point she would have been 28 years old still a wooo fighter but nothing there currently she’s a BJJ blue belt that’s her ranking okay she’s a BJJ blue belt keep that in mind when she lost to stamp faex she got cut from one championship and she goes over to this Matrix fight night I I tweeted this joke picture out the other day about is this the sh*ttiest belt you’ve ever seen okay that from that I saw no the it’s not from that but the girl holding that belt is this Jojo ra munari okay that’s who she fights right after stampex she want a split decision over the girl who’s 0 and O grappling is nonexistent she’s fighting the bottom of the barrel level of competition and if it stays standing dude I’ll give her one thing she throws a lot of kicks she moves pretty decent she knows how to fight in a kickboxing style format but even then she’s not great she’s not good she just at least can throw some kicks but if the fight hits the ground oh she’s in a world of crap anyways their last fight out is Anastasia F fanova that girl’s from Russia but at no point is a Grappler very tall skinny fighter and just allows her to get Sid kicked a hundred times never attempts a taked down not a great fight but she ends up stopping with her between rounds corner like we’re done with this I think she broke a rib on one of the sidekicks fair fair so we look at ryanna M well she’s a 105 or two like she’s fought at 125 and 115 in the past but she won the Invicta title over Jillian dorsy going a hard 15 or sorry 25 minutes was a five round fight at 105 PBS and then curiously enough her very next fight after going five rounds her very next fight against toita Allen car she gassed after the first she had a great first round lands like I don’t know 30 30 significant strikes in the first stuffs all Allen car’s takedowns second round she did get taken down by Allen car but she survives all the positions third round she Stuffs the takedowns and I thought she edged it I scored it for judges didn’t agree they gave it to Allen carar on a close split decision but I I’m wondering if she gassed because she was fighting a naturally larger stronger fighter or if there was something off UFC Jitters it’s your debut and you’re coming from Invicta but I would almost certainly expect her to be better in her sophom*ore outing she’s now fought in the UFC she knows what to expect she’s got those nerves off of her and she not taking on a big strong BJJ block belt like Allen car Allen car is a legitimate BJJ block belt you’re taking on someone from India who has absolutely no grappling and so okay well we know that puya is a blue Bel and can’t grapple but is Ryan really that good of a Grappler yes and no by Alan carins no Alan car is a better BJJ black belt but Ryan do Santos is a BJJ black belt not only that her mom is a BJJ black belt and her dad is a BJJ black belt she has two older brothers and they’re both BJJ black belts and then she leaves Brazil and moves to Texas where she marries colon England who’s a BJJ black belt uh can’t take a punch F in the contender series but sometimes you could submit guys you can’t take a punch it’s the Savage nature of MMA the point being is now she lives State Side in Texas with a pretty good team and she’s herself is a BJJ black belt so she’s been surrounded by Jiu-Jitsu her entire life and though you see her rely on striking when she’s taking on bigger stronger more powerful girls maybe her roots are Jiu-Jitsu if she just takes down puya she should be able to absolutely I I would think she puts on a hell of a performance against her if not submitting her just absolutely dominates her to the tune of a 108 round if and you know she can do it for five rounds if she’s in shape which she should be for this fight puya meanwhile can win this fight only if dos Sandos chooses not to take her down and they just Exchange in a 15minute you know striking battle because she’ll she’ll spam a whole lot of kicks and again you just don’t know what the judges are looking at it’s like oh Ryan landed a real nice right hand it’s like but she got kicked in the body five times in between her next strike thrown so like I don’t want it to be strictly a striking battle I want Ryan to come forward pressure her throw a few strikes maybe land something but ultimately you’re working towards the takedown you’re working towards getting her to the mat and when she’s on the mat that’s when she’ll shine it’ll it’ll look like a black belt versus a blue belt which it should and this is not a blue belt oh they don’t train giji Jitsu or oh man they’ve done Jiu-Jitsu for 10 years they’ve just they don’t care to go through the promotions no she did wooo her whole life she’s 30 years old she recently moved from India to Bali to get better training and she’s at a really good gym in Bali I won’t take that away from her there’s probably four or five good fighters in the gym but it’s by Southeast Asian standards like you’re you’re and a completely different ball game when you start looking at American talent Brazilian Talent Russian Talent you need to get out of the confines of your small little gym at that point so she moves to Bali and starts taking Jiu-Jitsu and now she’s a Blue Bell like that’s not enough man Ryan’s got a clowner here’s the only like little things there’s always got to be a little thing one Ryan’s like ring IQ is not spectacular so even though there is a clear path of Victory here I don’t know that I trust for her just to do that thing number two you know it is it is women’s MMA it’s and if it goes a decision and it’s a striking battle and it’s close and it’s contentious and like I don’t know all of that it would just make it closer than it need be and it’s minus 300 so I’m on it all day atus 190 I’m on it all day at minus 220 but likeus 300 it’s not going to come any lower it’s probably just going to go even heavier than that you get you get to a certain price point where it’s like yeah that’s the only problem with our show we have a great show Paul only problem with our show is like you release the show on a Wednesday lines have already swung and then the day and age that we’re in now by the time the fights happen on Saturday they they they’ll swung again we had Grant Dawson on the show last week atus 350 sense he goes off atus 550 it makes less sense he won easy but he almost got choked out with a guillotine choke in the first round like the more you pay the more you’re eventually like I had him like minus 280 on my parlay went off like close to 400 and it’s just like as as those numbers as those numbers start to grow I didn’t even mention it I’m like as these numbers continue to grow it’s like is there really quote unquote value on these anymore I don’t know um I mean I feel like Ray it’s too early for props there’s only one book that has it and that’s the one thing that keeps on getting steamed but rayon Amanda from everything that you’re saying there rayon Amanda by sub seems like the play plus 175 is the only thing I see right now it opened up at uh plus 240 and then it’s been steamed pretty much immediately so I’m thinking she stamped Fair Texas or though just like bellies her down and just keeps punching and then the ref says do something and she she hears it she acknowledges it but she doesn’t do anything because she can’t do anything at that point they just wave it off but I don’t know again I expect I expect Ryan to go off as she’s already minus 300 I expect money to continue to come in on her but what I noticed last week they stopped putting it up on the broadcast after but I kind of like figured it out was which fight I mean Amanda inside the distance would be plus 140 as opposed to the plus 175 I would just cover my cover my my bases right but then then again you are betting you know uh you’re betting a a women’s straw W fight from two girls that probably should be fighting at Adam weight and your betting finishes which is always a little bit uh a little bit sketchy at the best of times you watched yeah not that you can think of it at the top of your head it’s super not important but last week on last week’s broadcast you watched the fights it popped up it was like big bed alert somebody going DK bet $100,000 on they won it was to win 66,000 who who was it again ah I forgot I can’t remember okay well anyways doesn’t matter the the very next fight the thing comes up big bet alert one better bet 66,000 on and it was the losing fighter so whoever it was it’s the same better right he put 100 CR down he won 66 his next bet is the 66 and now he’s had a break even after two bets and and and they play it like big bet alert like there’s money coming in just one guy he probably has deep resources the fact that DK taking $100,000 bet off of him means he’s got a VIP extended account uh and and and and you drop a 100 Grand on a book it’s going to change the line and then when it changes the line the other books are generally going to follow suit and it’s like one guy has the power whether he knows what he’s looking at or not has the power in theory to change a line that quick which you never saw that before because limits on fights were like a couple thousand bucks now you can at least build to with Rapport I don’t know there’s books that’ll take your action do we went to Circus Sports I’m definitely going back I love that place but beyond it being like a a sport friendly bet friendly Casino brand new state-ofthe-art it was like they were willing to take your action yeah and look the other way if you made money and need to get out of the country right which is I appreciate I don’t want to fill out I don’t want to fill out some tax form so go there if you can it’s a great spot I’m not even getting paid any money to where this hatches I love those guys I’m going back 100% I actually have the as well I have it on backwards they aren’t giv me any money you’re just a full out shill you’re getting you’re not even getting paid and you’re showing full out for them but yeah no at the end of the day I mean we used to be sponsored by DraftKings DraftKings sports book they’ve been great they were always great I’m not going to say a really bad word about them but if you’re getting $100,000 on like a prelim on UFC with your account there you’re probably you know not exactly a a long-term winner there’s some of like the offshores and stuff that take like big action and stuff but like a lot of the T and it’s not just like it’s not just draft King sports book it’s like most of the what I would call like the ma for TV sports books are not if you’re a long-term winning better they’re not taking $100,000 on on a money on a UFC money line from you maybe the main event but yeah most case scenario your limits until you’ve gone through some sort of like VIP situation your limit would cap you off long before that soin look at online if you want to look at like online offshores bet online for my money’s worth is about as good as it gets and they’re high limits and they pay you right away and they’re industry leader and I can’t say enough good stuff also not paying any money but I I was with bada for a decade and I find my experience with beted online to be much better I don’t I it’s not just me I’m sure it would be anybody if you have an account look but they will not allow you to win more than $100,000 for a wager it just caps it I think you can win like 110 that might be a lie maybe like 110 but if I put a parlay together and you know it was a CRA it was the PRP but I opted that I wanted to put $100 on the PRP and a $100 PRP would pay me $350,000 they wouldn’t take the action they would cap it at you could only bet a plus money to 110 or $15,000 and then that’s that cap so for somebody to be able to drop a $100,000 on a straight line bet where he can win $100,000 in return let’s say yeah you’d have to be like a repeat customer not even like you got to lose all the time as much as like you got to lose sometimes I I I really don’t know that side of it because I’ve had a lot of luck and not been limited so when people say that I honestly don’t know the answer but I would I would think that youve got to be doing enough business with them to keep to take a 100 people say the same thing oh put a Million Dollar Bet down I put this down put a $100,000 spin on a on roulette people would always say that but 100 Grand down one single spin do you know what you got to do in order to do that you got to call the casino ahead of time you got to get a meeting with like their Pit Boss guy you got to sign some paperwork you have to get them to agree to take $100,000 on a spin you’re not Dana White dude you’re not walking up at this premium table it’s like a process they don’t just let Average Joe’s go because they don’t want to pay you any money that is the book’s entire game you lose they win that’s their entire business model they will not not help you if you think that you’re going to message customer service and get them to overturn the no contest or or you know your your lost wager on a technicality you’re wasting your time they will not play business with you they do not care they’re just looking to take your money all we’re trying to do is take that money back but in the way I do it is parlays what I’m saying is that the fact that the best online book is capping you off at 100,000 to see these guys like Drake or Dave poroy dropping a million dollars on a bet it almost certainly has to be a publicity stun from the book hey we’ll give you a million dollars in free credit you bet it on some outrageous play and talk to everybody about it or their career losers where it’s like Dana has a billion dollars so he goes to the casino and loses $3 million which apparently he has is that a really a big deal what is that 1% of his net worth like 3% of his net worth was that would that even be considered a big deal to him like no it’s not even it’s like zero point I’m bad with math but like $3 million a day and White’s not a big deal no I mean with Drake with stake is completely fugazi he’s a part owner of that company I actually do think Port I actually do think that uh that por no’s bets are real but that’s because he’s a partner with those books that they allow him to have that limits and they know that like he’s just a rich guy that like he wants to have a million dollars down on on you know the the winner of the winner of the NCAA tournament or whatever like I don’t know if he’s like a quote quote unquote sharp but like he pays enough attention to it but I do actually believe that he actually does have like the actual funds on it but he’s also worth like you know $300 million super super rich whereas Drake like is part owner of that sports book I’m pretty sure that’s Sports credit like I I’m pretty much like I’m like 99% sure it is anyway it’s a crazy it’s a crazy world out there in the in the Mean Streets of sports betting um you know never really know what to believe what’s real what’s not but uh what is real Cody is that what we’ve had what like three cards now where you’ve come up one short of the PRP there’s 14 fights on this one this doesn’t strike me as the one that is going to turn the corner and you’re going to hit 14 of 14 but hit him with hit him with it right now and if it does hit we’re all driving Yachts yeah it would be Legendary Legendary to hit a 14 fight card and this card in particular and I saw a lot of cappers that got banged up last week they were all making like a guarantee like I’m taking Louisville down I’m going to make Louisville M it’s like you just looked at this card dude this like this is not a bounceback c if you’re hoping your bounce back I don’t feel great about this card at all oh no and it’s 14 fights so bottom line is if and every card you need your anchors every card you need your anchors you look at last week I love Dawson how’s Dawson going to lose Strickland it was a split chinab bin you know he made it look easy makev you have all that back class from makev and uh Kevin Holland like he didn’t get dropped as bad as people said man we broke the guy’s arm the second to hit the ground like I felt pretty okay with it but regardless it’s like we liked and we talked about it on last week’s show we like those four players those are like four guys you can build the lineups up then you start adding your you’re four and five or your you’re five and six sorry which thankfully we hit then unfortunately the eighth guy row blew it but the money was made from that top part I’m okay with that hitting the PRP is nice hitting the top ticket that it should be a break even or close to a break even for you we can just hit the second ticket third ticket I’m always going to be okay with that when I look at this week’s card it’s like there is no anchor I may put caner at the top only reason would be the headed out and the only reason I would do that is I don’t have a first or second most trustworthy guy like R Rosas he seems like a guy that I could get behind who are my other lcks earlier in the week I thought I was going to have to bite the bullet and take a brad Katona or or a Taylor lapis but as we outlined on this card they’re both decision guys and they’re both taking on opponents that could surprise them a little bit could keep it competitive and outside that dude you don’t have you can take Ryan do Santos and I is that your top play it looks good compared to some of the other stuff on this card but I I can’t I got no building blocks man I’m so tight and squeezed but there’s a pfl this weekend an LFA this weekend a cage Warriors this weekend a bkfc this weekend a ksw this weekend it’s so an octagon MMA this weekend it’s so loaded that like yeah if you can skip a couple of these dingy fights and focus elsewhere yeah maybe it’s the move irregardless you guys don’t tune in to hear me say this guy’s going to be in a close fight and I’m not sure about this fight you tune in for some straight picks baby who is going to win so in that note I’m going to go with Jerry caner I am going to take Dominic Reyes R roses Dustin stus Zach Reese uh Miguel basa Ludovic Klein Charlie raty Brad Katona uh Andrea Lee Daniel Marcos Eduardo mura Taylor lapis and Ry Ando Santos if you are wondering that is uh plus 47,2 188 so you know a $100 bet would net you close to half a million dollars they’re not going to take your action on that but uh well depend on what book you’re on it’s just like Paul said hitting a 10 Fight prp’s Hard even a 12 fight prp’s hard you know that one outlier it’s three Street UFC events with one wrong and there’s a Bellator event in the mix as well that had one wrong over the course of those four events were something like 57 and four it’s unheard of but I I’m not ignorant enough to be like I’m on fire right now I got the eye baby tune in subscribe you know sign up it’s like we’re on a little bit of a series on of of good events you know you got to get a little bit of luck but beyond that it’s like we all go any serious gam if someone tells you they’ never been through a cold streak don’t trust this guy man CU he’s lying everybody goes through it so we are on a hell of a hot streak right now I will love it for as long as it lasts but there’s no denying the gold streak is coming at some point at the very least that one singular bad event Rick Wall the reads weren’t there the bounces weren’t there the judging wasn’t there and this to me definitely looks like it could be that so don’t don’t have a false sense of like saf’s running hot right now man we’re going to hit a PRP like goddamn I hope so I hope so you know I’ll be on it but you know like tail off the expectations thing that pisses me off the most is when people will hit me up and be like man I can’t believe Phil row ruined our KN Phil row didn’t ruin our Knight what are you talking about yeah he he ruined it from being a colossal night yeah I mean yeah you hit like a 12 to one parlay like the top three lines or whatever didn’t you top three lines hit and and you’ve just like beyond that it’s like row lost and you could have rebuilt the rest of the card like in any situ even when rebecky lost is that he lost and there was still three fights left and we hit all three fights it’s like if you are a rebuild guy so what one guy lost but the a lot of people will be like I don’t bet the lines individually I only put money on the PRP and I expect it to hit it’s like well what are you doing man like we’ll hit it we always do we’ve hit it six times officially we’ve only hit four UFC prps but W I guess yeah maybe more times to me a real PR is 12 fights so we’ve hit like nine fight pfls or 10 fight Bellator but realistic Ally speaking a concrete 12 fight Pace 350 to1 that’s going to happen every like 12 to 16 months it’s been how it’s pretty well average out but you get close and then people get high on you and then and then all of a sudden they’re betting your fourth line with all their money and they’re upset that Phil row loss like come on man he’s on the fourth line and he almost won he’s literally one decision away from winning the fight just either don’t try to scramble with this guy or get the second hook in and take the back if he TS the back he wins if he just flattens him back out and gets back in half guard he wins and it’s a PRP hit one little thing goes off people want to act like shint to picked Phil Row dude like man whatever whatever we have loyal fans of the show that just support it I do the show for them people that just want picks or people that just want to tune in Twitter and want to complain about a guy that would have been ranked Phil wrote If you ranked them all out would have been my eighth most confident pick and it’s like it’s my fault I picked the guy like come on man so 14 fights greasiest card of the Year dirtiest card of the Year beware but we’ve hit a few of these things before and they pay huge so yeah we just need we just need whoever we end up sealing in and going with to uh do their damnest and get this win and we need those Kentucky Yum Center judges to get it right or get it wrong fights that we got yeah KFC Yum Center judges uh which will also just be salato and a bunch of Chris Lee in the same same group of bozos you see every time out there so what to tell you Paul but that that’s the PRP it felt long reading it that’s how many 14 fights but again there’s about 75 fights this weekend that are betable and have good lines on them so uh don’t overextend yourself on some stupid UFC pick as you feel you need to uh and that’s about it man that’s about it I’m I’m trying to wish it into the universe the uncertainty and then feel real good when we Crush something hopefully because again some of the best cards are the ones you got no expectations for but I I honestly have no expectations for this card all I heard Cody was 14 fight PRP is incoming this week take it to the bank in Louisville Kentucky but that is it for us this week hope you enjoyed the show for producer Megan and Cody saftic I’m Paul shaas saying goodbye and good luck [Music] [Applause] oh
